Turkey: Polls and trends for the Turkish election 2028

Current Election Trend for Turkey

CHP
32.4
AKP
31.5
DEM
9.8
MHP
8.7
YRP
5.6
İYİ
4.3
ZP
3.6
TİP
1.7
Sonst.
2.4
On the rise: CHP
+7.5 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: İYİ
-4.8 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Turkey is expected to take place in 2028.
Government would have to worry
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 48.8% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Turkey?

In the current election trend in Turkey, CHP leads with 32.4%. This is a significant increase of +7.0 percentage points since the last election.

AKP experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 31.5% (-4.0).

DEM reaches 9.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+1.0 percentage points).

MHP experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 8.7% (-1.4).

YRP (5.6%), İYİ (4.3%), ZP (3.6%) and TİP (1.7%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

2.4% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Yöneylem, AREA, ASAL, İEA and MetroPOLL, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 7284 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Turkey, the government from AKP and MHP would secure 48.8% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 4 parties could enter parliament: CHP, AKP, DEM and MHP reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 0% - 100% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Turkey

Yöneylem
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
34.1
30.9
9.4
8.3
6
3.9
3.5
1.2
2.7
AREA
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
34.4
32.5
9.9
9.1
5.6
4
1.5
ASAL
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
32.2
26.5
9.8
9.1
5.6
4.5
4.2
2.6
5.5

What is the latest poll for Turkey?

The latest poll for the election in Turkey was published by Yöneylem. The parties achieve the following values: CHP 34.1%, AKP 30.9%, DEM 9.4%, MHP 8.3%, YRP 6%, İYİ 3.9%, ZP 3.5% and TİP 1.2%.

Coalitions

CHP + DEM
AKP + DEM
AKP + MHP

Which coalitions are currently possible in Turkey?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CHP and DEM and Coalition from AKP and DEM each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Turkey shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: CHP
+7.5 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: İYİ
-4.8 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CHP
AKP
DEM
MHP
YRP
İYİ
ZP
TİP
Show more

Turkey — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Turkey in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Turkey took place on 14.05.2023.

Government and parliament

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 600
Government & opposition
Government : 316
Opposition : 284
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 235
Right-leaning parties : 365

Which parties are in the parliament of Turkey?

In the parliament of Turkey, there are 600 representatives from 7 parties. 316 representatives are part of the government from AKP and MHP. The opposition from CHP, İYİ, DEM, YRP and TİP has 284 representatives.

235 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 365 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Turkey?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan governs in Turkey with a coalition of AKP and MHP.

Parliamentary election in Turkey 2028

The Parliamentary election in Turkey 2028 will probably take place in 2028. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is currently governing with a Right-wing coalition of AKP and MHP. In the last Parliamentary election in Turkey in 2023, AKP (35.5% - 266 seats), CHP (25.4% - 169 seats), MHP (10.1% - 50 seats), İYİ (9.8% - 44 seats), DEM (8.8% - 62 seats), YRP (2.8% - 5 seats) and TİP (1.7% - 4 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 0%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Turkey?

The next election in Turkey is expected to take place in the year 2028.

Who is the president of Turkey?

The head of state of Turkey is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Who governs in Turkey?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan governs in Turkey with a coalition of AKP and MHP.

What is the electoral threshold in Turkey?

The electoral threshold in Turkey is 7%.

What is the latest poll for Turkey?

The latest poll for the election in Turkey was published by Yöneylem. The parties achieve the following values: CHP 34.1%, AKP 30.9%, DEM 9.4%, MHP 8.3%, YRP 6%, İYİ 3.9%, ZP 3.5% and TİP 1.2%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Turkey?

In the parliament of Turkey, there are 600 representatives from 7 parties. 316 representatives are part of the government from AKP and MHP. The opposition from CHP, İYİ, DEM, YRP and TİP has 284 representatives.