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Ukraine: Polls and trends for the Ukrainian election 2024

Current Election Trend for Ukraine

YeS
20.5
SN
15.9
OPZZh
10.8
Batk.
10.7
RozPol
6.3
US
6.3
Nashi
5.8
SiCh
5.7
UDAR
4.8
PSh
3.9
RP
3.8
Svoboda
3.1
Holos
1.3
Sonst.
1.1
Next election: 2024
The next parliamentary election in Ukraine is expected to take place in 2024.

Who is leading in the election trend in Ukraine?

In the current election trend in Ukraine, YeS leads with 20.5%. This is a significant increase of +12.4 percentage points since the last election.

SN reaches 15.9%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-27.3).

OPZZh experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 10.8% (-2.3).

Batkivshchyna lands at 10.7% and gains +2.5 percentage points since the last election.

RozPol reaches 6.3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

US lands at 6.3% and gains +3.9 percentage points since the last election.

Nashi reaches 5.8%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

SiCh lands at 5.7% and gains +1.9 percentage points since the last election.

UDAR (4.8%), PSh (3.9%), RP (3.8%), Svoboda (3.1%) and Holos (1.3%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

1.1% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Ukraine, the government from would secure 0% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: YeS, SN, OPZZh, Batkivshchyna, RozPol, US, Nashi and SiCh reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 49.8% - 50.2% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Ukraine

KIIS
· 2 years ago
2 years ago
Open Details
18.9
13.7
13.3
11.6
7.6
7.4
5.5
5.5
4.6
4.5
2.8
1.6
DIF&Razumkov
· 2 years ago
2 years ago
Open Details
20.4
17.3
10.6
10.5
9.9
6.7
5.2
4.4
1.9
1.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.2
4.7

What is the latest poll for Ukraine?

The latest poll for the election in Ukraine was published by KIIS. The parties achieve the following values: YeS 18.9%, SN 13.7%, Batkivshchyna 13.3%, OPZZh 11.6%, RozPol 7.6%, SiCh 7.4%, Nashi 5.5%, US 5.5%, RP 4.6%, UDAR 4.5%, Svoboda 3.1%, PSh 2.8% and Holos 1.6%.

Coalitions

424
OPZZh
56
US
33
RozPol
32
Nashi
29
SN
83
YeS
106
Batk.
56
SiCh
29
Majority requires 213 seats
YeS + SN + OPZZh
245
YeS + SN + Batkivshchyna
245
SN + OPZZh + US + RozPol + Nashi
SN + OPZZh + US + RozPol + SiCh
SN + Batkivshchyna + US + RozPol + Nashi
SN + Batkivshchyna + US + RozPol + SiCh
YeS + US + RozPol + Nashi + SiCh
SN + OPZZh + US + Nashi + SiCh
SN + OPZZh + RozPol + Nashi + SiCh
SN + Batkivshchyna + US + Nashi + SiCh
SN + Batkivshchyna + RozPol + Nashi + SiCh
YeS + OPZZh + US + RozPol
YeS + Batkivshchyna + US + RozPol
SN + OPZZh + Batkivshchyna + US
SN + OPZZh + Batkivshchyna + RozPol
YeS + OPZZh + US + Nashi
YeS + OPZZh + RozPol + Nashi
YeS + OPZZh + US + SiCh
YeS + OPZZh + RozPol + SiCh
YeS + Batkivshchyna + US + Nashi
YeS + Batkivshchyna + RozPol + Nashi
YeS + Batkivshchyna + US + SiCh
YeS + Batkivshchyna + RozPol + SiCh
SN + OPZZh + Batkivshchyna + Nashi
SN + OPZZh + Batkivshchyna + SiCh
YeS + OPZZh + Nashi + SiCh
YeS + SN + US
222
YeS + SN + RozPol
221
YeS + Batkivshchyna + Nashi + SiCh
YeS + SN + Nashi
218
YeS + SN + SiCh
218
YeS + OPZZh + Batkivshchyna
218

Which coalitions are currently possible in Ukraine?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from YeS, SN and OPZZh, Coalition from YeS, SN and Batkivshchyna, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, US, RozPol and Nashi, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, US, RozPol and SiCh, Coalition from SN, Batkivshchyna, US, RozPol and Nashi, Coalition from SN, Batkivshchyna, US, RozPol and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, US, RozPol, Nashi and SiCh, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, US, Nashi and SiCh, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, RozPol, Nashi and SiCh, Coalition from SN, Batkivshchyna, US, Nashi and SiCh, Coalition from SN, Batkivshchyna, RozPol, Nashi and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, OPZZh, US and RozPol, Coalition from YeS, Batkivshchyna, US and RozPol, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, Batkivshchyna and US, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, Batkivshchyna and RozPol, Coalition from YeS, OPZZh, US and Nashi, Coalition from YeS, OPZZh, RozPol and Nashi, Coalition from YeS, OPZZh, US and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, OPZZh, RozPol and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, Batkivshchyna, US and Nashi, Coalition from YeS, Batkivshchyna, RozPol and Nashi, Coalition from YeS, Batkivshchyna, US and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, Batkivshchyna, RozPol and SiCh, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, Batkivshchyna and Nashi, Coalition from SN, OPZZh, Batkivshchyna and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, OPZZh, Nashi and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, SN and US, Coalition from YeS, SN and RozPol, Coalition from YeS, Batkivshchyna, Nashi and SiCh, Coalition from YeS, SN and Nashi, Coalition from YeS, SN and SiCh and Coalition from YeS, OPZZh and Batkivshchyna each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Ukraine shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
YeS
SN
OPZZh
Batkivshchyna
US
RozPol
Nashi
SiCh
UDAR
PSh
RP
Svoboda
Holos
Show more

Ukraine — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Ukraine in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Ukraine took place on 21.07.2019.

Government and parliament

Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 424
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 49
Right-leaning parties : 73

Which parties are in the parliament of Ukraine?

In the parliament of Ukraine, there are 424 representatives from 9 parties. 0 representatives are part of the government from . The opposition from SN, OPZZh, Batkivshchyna, YeS, Holos, Opoblok, Svoboda, Samopomich and Sonstige Parteien has 424 representatives.

49 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 73 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Ukraine?

In Ukraine, a coalition of governs.

Parliamentary election in Ukraine 2024

The Parliamentary election in Ukraine 2024 will probably take place in 2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

The country is lead by a Unknown orientation of . In the last Parliamentary election in Ukraine in 2019, SN (43.2% - 254 seats), OPZZh (13.1% - 43 seats), Batkivshchyna (8.2% - 26 seats), YeS (8.1% - 25 seats), Holos (5.8% - 20 seats), Opoblok (3% - 6 seats), Svoboda (2.2% - 1 seats), Samopomich (0.6% - 1 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (1.7% - 48 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 49.8%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Ukraine?

The next election in Ukraine is expected to take place in the year 2024.

Who governs in Ukraine?

In Ukraine, a coalition of governs.

What is the electoral threshold in Ukraine?

The electoral threshold in Ukraine is 5%.

What is the latest poll for Ukraine?

The latest poll for the election in Ukraine was published by KIIS. The parties achieve the following values: YeS 18.9%, SN 13.7%, Batkivshchyna 13.3%, OPZZh 11.6%, RozPol 7.6%, SiCh 7.4%, Nashi 5.5%, US 5.5%, RP 4.6%, UDAR 4.5%, Svoboda 3.1%, PSh 2.8% and Holos 1.6%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Ukraine?

In the parliament of Ukraine, there are 424 representatives from 9 parties. 0 representatives are part of the government from . The opposition from SN, OPZZh, Batkivshchyna, YeS, Holos, Opoblok, Svoboda, Samopomich and Sonstige Parteien has 424 representatives.