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Luxembourg: Polls and trends for the Luxembourgish election 2028

Current Election Trend for Luxembourg

CSV
29.2
LSAP
18.9
DP
18.7
ADR
9.3
DG
8.6
Pirat
6.7
DL
3.9
Fokus
2.5
KPL
0.6
Sonst.
1.6
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Luxembourg is expected to take place in 2028.
Government would have to worry
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 48.7% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Luxembourg?

In the current election trend in Luxembourg, CSV leads with 29.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

LSAP reaches 18.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Demokratesch Partei reaches 18.7% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

ADR reaches 9.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Déi Gréng reaches 8.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Piratepartei reaches 6.7% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Déi Lénk reaches 3.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Fokus reaches 2.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

KPL reaches 0.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

1.6% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Luxembourg, the government from CSV and Demokratesch Partei would secure 48.7% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 9 parties could enter parliament: CSV, LSAP, Demokratesch Partei, ADR, Déi Gréng, Piratepartei, Déi Lénk, Fokus and KPL reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 87.2% - 12.8% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Luxembourg

Ilres
· 10 months ago
10 months ago
Open Details
28.3
19.8
17.4
10.7
9.6
6.9
5
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.7
TNS
· 1 year ago
1 year ago
Open Details
27.1
17.9
17.1
12.8
10
7.5
4.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
TNS
· 1 year ago
1 year ago
Open Details
23.3
20.7
18.4
12.1
9.6
7.7
5.8
1.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.1

What is the latest poll for Luxembourg?

The latest poll for the election in Luxembourg was published by Ilres. The parties achieve the following values: CSV 28.3%, LSAP 19.8%, Demokratesch Partei 17.4%, Déi Gréng 10.7%, Piratepartei 9.6%, ADR 6.9%, Déi Lénk 5%, Fokus 1.1%, KPL 0.4% and Déi Konservativ 0.1%.

Coalitions

60
DL
2
LSAP
11
Pirat
3
DP
14
DG
4
CSV
21
ADR
5
Majority requires 31 seats
Demokratesch Partei + LSAP + Déi Gréng + Piratepartei
CSV + LSAP
32
CSV + Demokratesch Partei
35
CSV + ADR + Déi Gréng

Which coalitions are currently possible in Luxembourg?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Demokratesch Partei, LSAP, Déi Gréng and Piratepartei each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Luxembourg shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CSV
LSAP
Demokratesch Partei
ADR
Déi Gréng
Piratepartei
Déi Lénk
Fokus
KPL
Show more

Luxembourg — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Luxembourg in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Luxembourg took place on 08.10.2023.

Government and parliament

Henri von Nassau
Head of state
Luc Frieden
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 60
Government & opposition
Government : 35
Opposition : 25
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 16
Right-leaning parties : 26

Which parties are in the parliament of Luxembourg?

In the parliament of Luxembourg, there are 60 representatives from 7 parties. 35 representatives are part of the government from CSV and Demokratesch Partei. The opposition from LSAP, ADR, Déi Gréng, Piratepartei and Déi Lénk has 25 representatives.

16 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 26 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Luxembourg?

Luc Frieden governs in Luxembourg with a coalition of CSV and Demokratesch Partei. The head of state is Henri von Nassau.

Parliamentary election in Luxembourg 2028

The Parliamentary election in Luxembourg 2028 will probably take place in 2028. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Luc Frieden is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of CSV and Demokratesch Partei. In the last Parliamentary election in Luxembourg in 2023, CSV (29.2% - 21 seats), LSAP (18.9% - 11 seats), Demokratesch Partei (18.7% - 14 seats), ADR (9.3% - 5 seats), Déi Gréng (8.6% - 4 seats), Piratepartei (6.7% - 3 seats) and Déi Lénk (3.9% - 2 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 87.2%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Luxembourg?

The next election in Luxembourg is expected to take place in the year 2028.

Who is the president of Luxembourg?

The head of state of Luxembourg is Henri von Nassau.

Who governs in Luxembourg?

Luc Frieden governs in Luxembourg with a coalition of CSV and Demokratesch Partei.

What is the latest poll for Luxembourg?

The latest poll for the election in Luxembourg was published by Ilres. The parties achieve the following values: CSV 28.3%, LSAP 19.8%, Demokratesch Partei 17.4%, Déi Gréng 10.7%, Piratepartei 9.6%, ADR 6.9%, Déi Lénk 5%, Fokus 1.1%, KPL 0.4% and Déi Konservativ 0.1%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Luxembourg?

In the parliament of Luxembourg, there are 60 representatives from 7 parties. 35 representatives are part of the government from CSV and Demokratesch Partei. The opposition from LSAP, ADR, Déi Gréng, Piratepartei and Déi Lénk has 25 representatives.