Spain: Polls and trends for the Spanish election 2027

Current Election Trend for Spain

PP
36.1
PSOE
30.3
Vox
10.7
Sumar
10.6
ERC
1.7
JxC
1.6
PNV
1.1
Sonst.
7.9
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 46.6% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Spain?

In the current election trend in Spain, Partido Popular leads with 36.1%. This is an increase of +3.0 percentage points since the last election.

PSOE experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 30.3% (-1.4).

Vox experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 10.7% (-1.7).

Sumar experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 10.6% (-1.7).

ERC (1.7%), Junts per Catalunya (1.6%) and Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (1.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

7.9% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Simple Lógica for eldiario.es, SocioMétrica for El Español, CIS, 40dB, Sigma Dos for El Mundo, Invymark for lasexta, Celeste-Tel for Onda Cero, NC Report for La Razón, DYM, GESOP and Hamalgama Métrica, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 17045 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Spain, the government from PSOE and Sumar would secure 46.6% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 4 parties could enter parliament: Partido Popular, PSOE, Vox and Sumar reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 53.1% - 46.9% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Spain
· 61 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
37.5
28.8
11.4
9.4
3.5
3
3
1.6
1.1
0.7

Latest polls for Spain

Simple Lógica
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
36.6
29.7
12
11.1
2.3
8.3
SocioMétrica
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
38.5
29
10.8
10.5
2
1.8
1.1
1
0.7
0.2
0.1
4.3
CIS
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
33.2
33
10.2
7.9
2.9
2.1
1
1
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.1

What is the latest poll for Spain?

The latest poll for the election in Spain was published by Simple Lógica. The parties achieve the following values: Partido Popular 36.6%, PSOE 29.7%, Vox 12%, Sumar 11.1% and Podemos 2.3%.

Coalitions

Partido Popular + PSOE
75.7
Partido Popular + Vox
53.4
PSOE + Sumar
46.6

Which coalitions are currently possible in Spain?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Partido Popular and PSOE and Coalition from Partido Popular and Vox each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Spain shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Partido Popular
PSOE
Vox
Sumar
ERC
Junts per Catalunya
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
Show more

Spain — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Spain in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Spain took place on 23.07.2023.

Government and parliament

Pedro Sánchez
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 350
Government & opposition
Government : 152
Opposition : 198
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 166
Right-leaning parties : 177

Which parties are in the parliament of Spain?

In the parliament of Spain, there are 350 representatives from 11 parties. 152 representatives are part of the government from PSOE and Sumar. The opposition from Partido Popular, Vox, ERC, Junts per Catalunya, EH Bildu, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco, Galego, Coalición Canaria and UPN has 198 representatives.

166 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 177 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Spain?

Pedro Sánchez governs in Spain with a coalition of PSOE and Sumar.

Parliamentary election in Spain 2027

The Parliamentary election in Spain 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition of PSOE and Sumar. In the last Parliamentary election in Spain in 2023, Partido Popular (33.1% - 137 seats), PSOE (31.7% - 121 seats), Vox (12.4% - 33 seats), Sumar (12.3% - 31 seats), ERC (1.9% - 7 seats), Junts per Catalunya (1.6% - 7 seats), EH Bildu (1.4% - 6 seats), Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco (1.1% - 5 seats), Galego (0.6% - 1 seats), Coalición Canaria (0.5% - 1 seats) and UPN (0.2% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 53.1%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Spain?

The next election in Spain is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who is the president of Spain?

The head of state of Spain is Pedro Sánchez.

Who governs in Spain?

Pedro Sánchez governs in Spain with a coalition of PSOE and Sumar.

What is the electoral threshold in Spain?

The electoral threshold in Spain is 3% (per constituency). Since most constituencies have a low number of seats, the effective threshold is significantly higher there.

What is the latest poll for Spain?

The latest poll for the election in Spain was published by Simple Lógica. The parties achieve the following values: Partido Popular 36.6%, PSOE 29.7%, Vox 12%, Sumar 11.1% and Podemos 2.3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Spain?

In the parliament of Spain, there are 350 representatives from 11 parties. 152 representatives are part of the government from PSOE and Sumar. The opposition from Partido Popular, Vox, ERC, Junts per Catalunya, EH Bildu, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco, Galego, Coalición Canaria and UPN has 198 representatives.