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France: Polls and trends for the French election 2024

Current Election Trend for France

RN
33.8
NUPES
28.0
EN
20.2
LR
6.2
REC
2.2
DVD
1.9
DVG
1.9
EXG
1.1
Sonst.
4.7
On the rise: Rassemblement national
+5.8 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Reconquête
-4.3 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 30.06.2024
The next general election in France will be held in 6.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 21.2% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in France?

In the current election trend in France, Rassemblement national leads with 33.8%. This is a significant increase of +16.5 percentage points since the last election.

NUPES experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 28% (-3.6).

Ensemble reaches 20.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-18.4).

Les Républicains reaches 6.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.8 percentage points).

Reconquête reaches 2.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

Divers droite reaches 1.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).

Divers gauche reaches 1.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.2 percentage points).

Extrême gauche reaches 1.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

4.7% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from ELABE, Ifop-Fiducial, OpinionWay, Ipsos, Odoxa, Harris x Toluna, Cluster17 and Ifop, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 13969 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in France, the government from Ensemble would secure 21.2% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Rassemblement national, NUPES, Ensemble, Les Républicains, Reconquête, Divers droite, Divers gauche and Extrême gauche reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 46.2% - 53.8% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for France

New ELABE
· 3 days ago
3 days ago
Open Details
36
27
20
10
2
1.5
1
2.5
Ifop-Fiducial
· 3 days ago
3 days ago
Open Details
35
29
21.5
6.5
1.5
1
1
4.5
New OpinionWay
· 4 days ago
4 days ago
Open Details

What is the latest poll for France?

The latest poll for the election in France was published by ELABE. The parties achieve the following values: Rassemblement national 36%, NUPES 27%, EAC 20%, Les Républicains 10%, Divers gauche 2%, Reconquête 1.5% and Extrême gauche 1%.

Coalitions

577
EXG
6
NUPES
170
DVG
12
EN
122
LR
37
RN
205
DVD
12
REC
13
Majority requires 289 seats
Rassemblement national + NUPES
375
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
327
NUPES + Ensemble
292

Which coalitions are currently possible in France?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Rassemblement national and NUPES, Coalition from Rassemblement national and Ensemble and Coalition from NUPES and Ensemble each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in France shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Rassemblement national
+5.8 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Reconquête
-4.3 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Rassemblement national
NUPES
Ensemble
Les Républicains
Reconquête
Divers gauche
Divers droite
Extrême gauche
Show more

France — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in France in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in France took place on 19.06.2022.

Government and parliament

Emmanuel Macron
Head of state
Gabriel Attal
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 577
Government & opposition
Government : 244
Opposition : 333
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 153
Right-leaning parties : 163

Which parties are in the parliament of France?

In the parliament of France, there are 577 representatives from 9 parties. 244 representatives are part of the government from Ensemble. The opposition from NUPES, Rassemblement national, Les Républicains, Divers gauche, Regionalists, Divers droite, UDI and Sonstige Parteien has 333 representatives.

153 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 163 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in France?

Gabriel Attal governs in France with a coalition of Ensemble. The head of state is Emmanuel Macron.

Parliamentary election in France 2024

The Parliamentary election in France 2024 will take place on 30.06.2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Gabriel Attal is currently governing with a website.coalition-orientation-other of Ensemble and Mouvement démocrate. In the last Parliamentary election in France in 2022, Ensemble (38.6% - 244 seats), NUPES (31.6% - 131 seats), Rassemblement national (17.3% - 89 seats), Les Républicains (7% - 61 seats), Divers gauche (2.1% - 22 seats), Regionalists (1.3% - 10 seats), Divers droite (1.1% - 10 seats), UDI (0.3% - 3 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (0.7% - 7 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 46.2%.

FAQ

When is the next election in France?

The next election in France is on 30.06.2024.

Who is the president of France?

The head of state of France is Emmanuel Macron.

Who governs in France?

Gabriel Attal governs in France with a coalition of Ensemble.

What is the latest poll for France?

The latest poll for the election in France was published by ELABE. The parties achieve the following values: Rassemblement national 36%, NUPES 27%, EAC 20%, Les Républicains 10%, Divers gauche 2%, Reconquête 1.5% and Extrême gauche 1%.

Which parties are in the parliament of France?

In the parliament of France, there are 577 representatives from 9 parties. 244 representatives are part of the government from Ensemble. The opposition from NUPES, Rassemblement national, Les Républicains, Divers gauche, Regionalists, Divers droite, UDI and Sonstige Parteien has 333 representatives.