Latest voting intention survey by 40dB for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by 40dB, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 33%, PSOE 29.5%, Vox 13.8%, Sumar 5.1%, Podemos 4% and SALF 2.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2000 people during the period 26.12.2024 - 26.12.2024. The survey was commissioned by El País.
2000 participants
20.12.2024 - 26.12.2024
40dB
El País
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
21
6%
POD
16
4.6%
PSOE
121
34.6%
PP
135
38.6%
Vox
57
16.3%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Partido Popular lower
In 56% of election polls 40dB rates Partido Popular lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSOE higher
In 32% of election polls, 40dB rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Sumar lower
In 35% of election polls 40dB rates Sumar lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.0
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in 40dB pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.9
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 4/19 |
|
1.15
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 5/15 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.