Latest voting intention survey by Alpha Research for Bulgaria
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Bulgaria conducted by Alpha Research, the parties received the following results: GERB 26%, PP/DB 15.7%, Vŭzrazhdane 15.4%, APS 9.1%, DPS-NN 7.1%, BSP 6.8%, ITN 5.9%, Velichie 3.5%, MECh 3.3% and SB 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 24.09.2024 - 24.09.2024.
1000 participants
18.09.2024 - 24.09.2024
Alpha Research
Development since the last election on 27.10.2024
GERB
26.0
+0.9
PP/DB
15.7
+0.3
V
15.4
+0.2
APS
9.1
+9.1
DPS-NN
7.1
+7.1
BSP
6.8
-1.3
ITN
5.9
-0.3
VEL
3.5
+3.5
MECh
3.3
+3.3
SB
3.0
-0.3
Others
4.2
-22.5
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
19
7.9%
APS
25
10.4%
DPS-NN
20
8.3%
ITN
16
6.7%
GERB
73
30.4%
PP/DB
44
18.3%
V
43
17.9%
GERB + PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane
GERB + PP/DB + APS
GERB + APS + DPS-NN + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + DPS-NN
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
GERB + APS + DPS-NN + ITN
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
GERB + APS + BSP + ITN
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
GERB + DPS-NN + BSP + ITN
PP/DB + APS + DPS-NN + BSP + ITN
GERB + APS + DPS-NN
60
PolitPro Score
Alpha Research achieves a score of 60/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.3
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Alpha Research pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.3
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2024 | 1/2 |
|
3.53
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 3/6 |
|
1.45
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 1/3 |
|
2.79
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 3/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.