Latest voting intention survey by Trend for Bulgaria
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Bulgaria conducted by Trend, the parties received the following results: GERB 24.8%, Vŭzrazhdane 15.8%, PP/DB 15.1%, APS 8.5%, BSP 6.9%, ITN 6.9%, DPS-NN 5.8%, MECh 3.5%, Velichie 3.4% and SB 1.6%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1003 people during the period 24.09.2024 - 24.09.2024. The survey was commissioned by 24chasa.
1003 participants
17.09.2024 - 24.09.2024
Trend
24chasa
Development since the last election on 27.10.2024
GERB
24.8
-1.7
V
15.8
+0.7
PP/DB
15.1
-0.2
APS
8.5
+8.5
BSP
6.9
-1.6
ITN
6.9
+1.0
DPS-NN
5.8
+5.8
MECh
3.5
+3.5
VEL
3.4
+3.4
SB
1.6
-0.5
Others
7.7
-18.9
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
20
8.3%
APS
24
10%
DPS-NN
16
6.7%
ITN
19
7.9%
GERB
72
30%
PP/DB
43
17.9%
V
46
19.2%
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + PP/DB
GERB + PP/DB + APS
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
GERB + APS + BSP + ITN
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
GERB + APS + BSP + DPS-NN
GERB + APS + ITN + DPS-NN
GERB + PP/DB + DPS-NN
GERB + BSP + ITN + DPS-NN
PP/DB + APS + BSP + ITN + DPS-NN
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane
60
PolitPro Score
Trend achieves a score of 60/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.6
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Trend pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.6 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2024 | 2/2 |
|
3.61
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 4/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.