Latest voting intention survey by Kantar Emor for Estonia
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Estonia conducted by Kantar Emor, the parties received the following results: Isamaa 27.3%, Reformierakond 17.5%, Keskerakond 13.5%, SDE 13.3%, EKRE 12.2%, Parempoolsed 6.3%, E200 3.6%, Elurikkuse Erakond 3.1%, EER 2.1% and KOOS 1.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1537 people during the period 11.12.2024 - 11.12.2024. The survey was commissioned by ERR.
1537 participants
04.12.2024 - 11.12.2024
Kantar Emor
ERR
Seats in parliament
101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
15
14.9%
K
15
14.9%
R
20
19.8%
I
31
30.7%
P
7
6.9%
EKRE
13
12.9%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE + Parempoolsed
Isamaa + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
Isamaa + Reformierakond
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
Rating of parties
Institute often rates E200 higher
In 54% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Keskerakond lower
In 46% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reformierakond lower
In 34% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SDE higher
In 51% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.5
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Kantar Emor pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.65
|
Parliamentary Election in Estland 2023 | 1/3 |
|
1.28
|
Parliamentary Election in Estland 2019 | 3/4 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.