Current election polls and polling data from Opinion

Latest voting intention survey by Opinion for Norway

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Norway conducted by Opinion, the parties received the following results: Arbeiderpartiet 30.4%, Fremskrittspartiet 20.1%, Høyre 17.4%, Senterpartiet 7%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.6%, Rødt 4.6%, De Grønne 3.7%, Venstre 3.5% and Kristelig Folkeparti 3.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 21.04.2025 - 21.04.2025.
1000 participants
14.04.2025 - 21.04.2025
Opinion
Development since the last election on 13.09.2021
Ap
+4.1
FrP
+8.5
H
-3.0
Sp
-6.5
SV
-1.0
R
-0.1
MDG
-0.2
V
-1.1
KrF
-0.7
Ap
30.4
+5.3
FrP
20.1
-1.0
H
17.4
-5.1
Sp
7.0
+1.7
SV
6.6
+0.4
R
4.6
-0.7
MDG
3.7
±0.0
V
3.5
-0.3
KrF
3.1
±0.0
Others
3.6
-0.3

Seats in parliament

169
Majority requires 85 seats
SV
13
7.7%
R
8
4.7%
Ap
60
35.5%
Sp
13
7.7%
H
35
20.7%
FrP
40
23.7%
Arbeiderpartiet + Høyre
56.2%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre + Senterpartiet
52.1%
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet
50.9%
86

PolitPro Score

Opinion achieves a score of 86/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
Ap
34
58
8
FrP
25
49
26
H
13
47
40
KrF
2
96
2
MDG
2
98
0
R
6
83
11
SV
9
85
6
Sp
9
81
9
V
11
83
6

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

0.6

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Opinion pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.6 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
0.58
 Parliamentary Election in Norwegen 2021 1/6

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
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