Latest voting intention survey by Opinion for Norway
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Norway conducted by Opinion, the parties received the following results: Fremskrittspartiet 25%, Høyre 21.6%, Arbeiderpartiet 18.1%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 8.7%, Senterpartiet 6.3%, Rødt 5.7%, Venstre 4.7%, Kristelig Folkeparti 3.2% and De Grønne 2.8%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1005 people during the period 06.01.2025 - 06.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by Altinget.
1005 participants
02.01.2025 - 06.01.2025
Opinion
Altinget
Seats in parliament
169
Majority requires 85 seats
SV
17
10.1%
R
10
5.9%
Ap
34
20.1%
V
8
4.7%
Sp
12
7.1%
H
41
24.3%
FrP
47
27.8%
Fremskrittspartiet + Høyre
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet
Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Rødt
Fremskrittspartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Venstre
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet + Venstre
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Arbeiderpartiet lower
In 33% of election polls Opinion rates Arbeiderpartiet lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Høyre higher
In 40% of election polls, Opinion rates Høyre higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Opinion pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.6 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.58
|
Parliamentary Election in Norwegen 2021 | 1/6 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.