Latest voting intention survey by Instytut Badań Pollster for Poland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by Instytut Badań Pollster, the parties received the following results: ZP 41.3%, KO 29.6%, Lewica 10.7%, KP 9.1% and Kon 8.8%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1047 people during the period 17.06.2020 - 17.06.2020. The survey was commissioned by SE.pl.
1047 participants
16.06.2020 - 17.06.2020
Instytut Badań Pollster
SE.pl
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
Seats in parliament
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
49
10.7%
KO
137
29.8%
KP
42
9.1%
ZP
192
41.7%
Kon
40
8.7%
ZP + KO
ZP + Lewica
ZP + Kon
KO + Lewica + Kon
Rating of parties
Institute often rates KO higher
In 46% of election polls, Instytut Badań Pollster rates KO higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Lewica higher
In 77% of election polls, Instytut Badań Pollster rates Lewica higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PiS higher
In 78% of election polls, Instytut Badań Pollster rates PiS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates ZP lower
In 31% of election polls Instytut Badań Pollster rates ZP lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Instytut Badań Pollster pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.45
|
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2019 | 3/9 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.