Latest voting intention survey by United Surveys for Poland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by United Surveys, the parties received the following results: KO 36.4%, PiS 31.3%, Kon 11.6%, PL2050/PSL 11.3% and Lewica 9.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 27.10.2024 - 27.10.2024. The survey was commissioned by wp.pl.
1000 participants
25.10.2024 - 27.10.2024
United Surveys
wp.pl
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
Seats in parliament
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
43
9.3%
PL2050/PSL
52
11.3%
KO
168
36.5%
PiS
144
31.3%
Kon
53
11.5%
KO + PiS
KO + Kon + PL2050/PSL
KO + Kon + Lewica
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
PiS + Kon + PL2050/PSL
PiS + Kon + Lewica
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Kon lower
In 38% of election polls United Surveys rates Kon lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Lewica higher
In 33% of election polls, United Surveys rates Lewica higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PiS higher
In 57% of election polls, United Surveys rates PiS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PL2050/PSL higher
In 44% of election polls, United Surveys rates PL2050/PSL higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.2
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in United Surveys pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.2 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.2
|
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2023 | 8/11 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.