Spain: Poll by GAD3 from 04.01.2023

Polling data

PP
33.2
-0.8
PSOE
25.9
-0.7
Vox
15.3
+1.1
UP
10.1
+1.2
ERC
2.6
-0.5
JxC
2.0
±0.0
MP
1.6
-0.7
PNV
1.3
±0.0
Cs
1.0
-0.6
Bildu
1.0
±0.0
CUP
0.7
-0.1
BNG
0.6
±0.0
CC
0.4
+0.1
PRC
0.2
±0.0
UPN
0.2
+0.2
TE
0.1
±0.0
Others
3.8
+0.8
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
+0.1
PSOE
-5.8
Vox
+2.9
UP
New
ERC
+0.7
JxC
+0.4
MP
New
PNV
+0.2
Cs
New
Bildu
-0.4
CUP
+0.3
BNG
±0.0
CC
-0.1
PRC
New
UPN
±0.0
TE
New
GAD3 – 1002 respondents – 28.12.2022-04.01.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular higher

In 52% of election polls, GAD3 rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 35% of election polls, GAD3 rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Unidos Podemos lower

In 55% of election polls GAD3 rates Unidos Podemos lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox lower

In 33% of election polls GAD3 rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Spain from GAD3 shows the following results: Partido Popular 33.2%, PSOE 25.9%, Vox 15.3%, Unidos Podemos 10.1%, ERC 2.6%, Junts per Catalunya 2%, Más País 1.6%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Ciudadanos 1%, EH Bildu 1%, CUP 0.7%, Galego 0.6%, Coalición Canaria 0.4%, PRC 0.2%, UPN 0.2% and ¡Teruel Existe! 0.1%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Vox might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.9 growth since the last election. PSOE, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 30.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by GAD3. For this purpose, 1002 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (28.12.2022 - 04.01.2023).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
UP
42
12%
PSOE
107
30.7%
PP
138
39.3%
Vox
63
18.1%
Partido Popular + PSOE
70.0%
Partido Popular + Vox
57.4%
PSOE + Unidos Podemos
42.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by GAD3. The survey took place between 28.12.2022 and 04.01.2023 among 1002 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 33.2%, PSOE 25.9%, Vox 15.3%, Unidos Podemos 10.1%, ERC 2.6%, Junts per Catalunya 2%, Más País 1.6%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Ciudadanos 1%, EH Bildu 1%, CUP 0.7%, Galego 0.6%, Coalición Canaria 0.4%, PRC 0.2%, UPN 0.2% and ¡Teruel Existe! 0.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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