Spain: Poll by Celeste-Tel from 10.11.2023

Polling data

PP
36.5
±0.0
PSOE
30.6
+2.2
Sumar
11.3
-0.2
Vox
10.9
-0.5
ERC
2.0
-0.3
JxC
1.9
-0.2
Bildu
1.5
±0.0
PNV
1.1
-0.3
BNG
0.7
-0.1
CC
0.3
-0.1
UPN
0.2
±0.0
Others
3.0
-0.5
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
+3.4
PSOE
-1.1
Sumar
-1.0
Vox
-1.5
ERC
+0.1
JxC
+0.3
Bildu
+0.1
PNV
±0.0
BNG
+0.1
CC
-0.2
UPN
±0.0
Celeste-Tel – 1100 respondents – 06.11.2023-10.11.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular higher

In 63% of election polls, Celeste-Tel rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox lower

In 38% of election polls Celeste-Tel rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from Celeste-Tel shows the following results: Partido Popular 36.5%, PSOE 30.6%, Sumar 11.3%, Vox 10.9%, ERC 2%, Junts per Catalunya 1.9%, EH Bildu 1.5%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.1%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.3% and UPN 0.2%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Partido Popular might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.4 growth since the last election. Vox, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 46.9% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Celeste-Tel. For this purpose, 1100 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (06.11.2023 - 10.11.2023).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
44
12.6%
PSOE
120
34.3%
PP
144
41.1%
Vox
42
12%
Partido Popular + PSOE
75.4%
Partido Popular + Vox
53.1%
PSOE + Sumar
46.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by Celeste-Tel. The survey took place between 06.11.2023 and 10.11.2023 among 1100 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 36.5%, PSOE 30.6%, Sumar 11.3%, Vox 10.9%, ERC 2%, Junts per Catalunya 1.9%, EH Bildu 1.5%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.1%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.3% and UPN 0.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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