Latest voting intention survey by SKOP for Sweden
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Sweden conducted by SKOP, the parties received the following results: Socialdemokraterna 33.4%, Sverigedemokraterna 23.3%, Moderaterna 18.6%, Vänsterpartiet 7.2%, Liberalerna 5%, Centerpartiet 4.4%, Miljöpartiet 4.2% and Kristdemokraterna 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1014 people during the period 22.01.2024 - 22.01.2024.
1014 participants
22.01.2024 - 22.01.2024
SKOP
Seats in parliament
349
Majority requires 175 seats
V
26
7.5%
S
122
34.8%
MP
15
4.4%
C
16
4.6%
L
18
5.2%
M
68
19.4%
SD
84
24.2%
Socialdemokraterna + Moderaterna
Sverigedemokraterna + Moderaterna + Liberalerna + Centerpartiet
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Centerpartiet + Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna + Liberalerna + Centerpartiet + Miljöpartiet
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Liberalerna higher
In 33% of election polls, SKOP rates Liberalerna higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Socialdemokraterna lower
In 39% of election polls SKOP rates Socialdemokraterna lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Sverigedemokraterna lower
In 45% of election polls SKOP rates Sverigedemokraterna lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Vänsterpartiet higher
In 33% of election polls, SKOP rates Vänsterpartiet higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in SKOP pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.