Current election polls and polling data from SKOP

Latest voting intention survey by SKOP for Sweden

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Sweden conducted by SKOP, the parties received the following results: Socialdemokraterna 33.4%, Sverigedemokraterna 23.3%, Moderaterna 18.6%, Vänsterpartiet 7.2%, Liberalerna 5%, Centerpartiet 4.4%, Miljöpartiet 4.2% and Kristdemokraterna 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1014 people during the period 22.01.2024 - 22.01.2024.
1014 participants
22.01.2024 - 22.01.2024
SKOP
S
33.4
-1.8
SD
23.3
+2.7
M
18.6
-1.1
V
7.2
+0.2
L
5.0
+1.3
C
4.4
-0.6
MP
4.2
-0.2
KD
3.0
-0.2
Others
0.9
-0.3

Seats in parliament

349
Majority requires 175 seats
V
26
7.5%
S
122
34.8%
MP
15
4.4%
C
16
4.6%
L
18
5.2%
M
68
19.4%
SD
84
24.2%
Socialdemokraterna + Moderaterna
54.4%
Sverigedemokraterna + Moderaterna + Liberalerna + Centerpartiet
53.3%
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Centerpartiet + Miljöpartiet
51.3%
Socialdemokraterna + Liberalerna + Centerpartiet + Miljöpartiet
49.0%

Rating of parties

Institute often rates Liberalerna higher

In 33% of election polls, SKOP rates Liberalerna higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Socialdemokraterna lower

In 39% of election polls SKOP rates Socialdemokraterna lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Sverigedemokraterna lower

In 45% of election polls SKOP rates Sverigedemokraterna lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vänsterpartiet higher

In 33% of election polls, SKOP rates Vänsterpartiet higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower than before
Unchanged
Higher than before
C
6
85
9
KD
9
79
12
L
Not enough data available
M
27
58
15
MP
7
72
21
S
39
42
18
SD
45
52
3
V
Not enough data available

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in SKOP pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.