Estonia
Election trend
Parties

Estonia: Poll by Turu-uuringute AS from 15.05.2023

Polling data

R
23.0
-1.0
EKRE
20.0
+1.0
K
16.0
+3.0
E200
14.0
-3.0
SDE
10.0
±0.0
I
8.0
±0.0
ER
3.0
+2.0
P
3.0
-1.0
EÜVP
1.0
±0.0
Sonst.
2.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-8.2
EKRE
+3.9
K
+0.7
E200
+0.7
SDE
+0.7
I
-0.2
ER
P
+0.7
EÜVP
Turu-uuringute AS – 879 respondents – 04.05.2023-15.05.2023
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Low number of respondents
Only 879 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.
Institute often rates EKRE lower
In 33% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Keskerakond higher
In 44% of election polls, Turu-uuringute AS rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reformierakond lower
In 54% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Turu-uuringute AS shows the following results: Reformierakond 23%, EKRE 20%, Keskerakond 16%, E200 14%, SDE 10%, Isamaa 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 3%, Parempoolsed 3% and EÜVP 1%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, EKRE might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.9 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-8.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 45.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Turu-uuringute AS. For this purpose, 879 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 11 days (04.05.2023 - 15.05.2023).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
11
K
18
E200
15
R
26
I
9
EKRE
22
Majority requires 51 seats
Reformierakond + EKRE + E200
63
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
59
Reformierakond + EKRE + Isamaa
57
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
55
Keskerakond + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
53
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Isamaa
53
Reformierakond + E200 + SDE
52
Reformierakond + E200 + Isamaa
50
Reformierakond + EKRE
48
Reformierakond + SDE + Isamaa
46

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Turu-uuringute AS. The survey took place between 04.05.2023 and 15.05.2023 among 879 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reformierakond 23%, EKRE 20%, Keskerakond 16%, E200 14%, SDE 10%, Isamaa 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 3%, Parempoolsed 3% and EÜVP 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.