Latest voting intention survey by Red C for Ireland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Ireland conducted by Red C, the parties received the following results: Fianna Fáil 21%, Fine Gael 20%, Sinn Féin 20%, Social Democrats 6%, Aontú 4%, Green Party 4%, Independent Ireland 4%, Labour Party 4% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1004 people during the period 26.11.2024 - 26.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by Business Post.
1004 participants
20.11.2024 - 26.11.2024
Red C
Business Post
Seats in parliament
160
Majority requires 81 seats
SF
39
24.4%
S-PBP
3
1.9%
SD
11
6.9%
Lab
7
4.4%
GP
7
4.4%
Aon
7
4.4%
FF
40
25%
FG
39
24.4%
II
7
4.4%
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Social Democrats
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Green Party
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Labour Party
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Aontú
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Independent Ireland
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Fianna Fáil lower
In 55% of election polls Red C rates Fianna Fáil lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Sinn Féin lower
In 55% of election polls Red C rates Sinn Féin lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Red C pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.6 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.76
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2024 | 1/3 |
|
0.53
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2020 | 1/4 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.