Poland: Poll by Estymator from 05.04.2023

Poland: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
ZP
36.1
-0.3
KO
25.8
-2.1
Kon
11.0
+1.1
Lewica
10.3
+2.0
PL2050
7.9
-0.2
PSL
7.0
-0.1
K'15
1.2
+0.2
AU
0.5
-0.4
Others
0.2
-0.2
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
+0.7
KO
-4.9
Kon
+3.8
Lewica
+1.7
PL2050
New
PSL
New
K'15
New
AU
New
Estymator – 1032 respondents – 04.04.2023-05.04.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates KO lower

In 42% of election polls Estymator rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Lewica higher

In 50% of election polls, Estymator rates Lewica higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PL2050 lower

In 67% of election polls Estymator rates PL2050 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSL higher

In 61% of election polls, Estymator rates PSL higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZP higher

In 33% of election polls, Estymator rates ZP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Poland from Estymator shows the following results: ZP 36.1%, KO 25.8%, Kon 11%, Lewica 10.3%, PL2050 7.9%, PSL 7%, Kukiz’15 1.2% and AGROunia 0.5%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.8 growth since the last election. KO, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.9) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 36.9% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Estymator. For this purpose, 1032 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (04.04.2023 - 05.04.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
48
10.4%
PL2050
37
8%
KO
122
26.5%
PSL
32
7%
ZP
170
37%
Kon
51
11.1%
ZP + KO
63.5%
ZP + Kon + Lewica
58.5%
KO + Kon + Lewica + PL2050
56.1%
ZP + Kon + PL2050
56.1%
ZP + Lewica + PL2050
55.4%
ZP + Kon + PSL
55.0%
KO + Kon + PL2050 + PSL
52.6%
KO + Lewica + PL2050 + PSL
52.0%
ZP + PL2050 + PSL
52.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Estymator. The survey took place between 04.04.2023 and 05.04.2023 among 1032 eligible voters. After this election poll would get ZP 36.1%, KO 25.8%, Kon 11%, Lewica 10.3%, PL2050 7.9%, PSL 7%, Kukiz’15 1.2% and AGROunia 0.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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