Poland: Poll by Social Changes from 10.10.2023

Poland: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
ZP
36.0
-3.0
KO
28.0
-2.0
PL2050/PSL
12.0
+4.0
Kon
11.0
+1.0
Lewica
10.0
+1.0
BS
2.0
±0.0
Others
1.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
+0.6
KO
-2.7
PL2050/PSL
-2.4
Kon
+3.8
Lewica
+1.4
BS
+0.4
Social Changes – 1094 respondents – 09.10.2023-10.10.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates KO lower

In 45% of election polls Social Changes rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Kon higher

In 46% of election polls, Social Changes rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PL2050/PSL lower

In 79% of election polls Social Changes rates PL2050/PSL lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZP higher

In 44% of election polls, Social Changes rates ZP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Poland from Social Changes shows the following results: ZP 36%, KO 28%, PL2050/PSL 12%, Kon 11%, Lewica 10% and BS 2%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.8 growth since the last election. KO, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 51.5% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Social Changes. For this purpose, 1094 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (09.10.2023 - 10.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
47
10.2%
PL2050/PSL
57
12.4%
KO
133
28.9%
ZP
171
37.2%
Kon
52
11.3%
ZP + KO
66.1%
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Kon
60.9%
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
59.8%
ZP + Kon + Lewica
58.7%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
52.6%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
51.5%
KO + Kon + Lewica
50.4%
ZP + PL2050/PSL
49.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Social Changes. The survey took place between 09.10.2023 and 10.10.2023 among 1094 eligible voters. After this election poll would get ZP 36%, KO 28%, PL2050/PSL 12%, Kon 11%, Lewica 10% and BS 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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