Poland
Election trend
Parties

Poland: Poll by Social Changes from 13.11.2023

Polling data

ZP
33.0
-3.0
KO
32.0
+4.0
PL2050/PSL
14.0
+2.0
Kon
9.0
-2.0
Lewica
9.0
-1.0
BS
2.0
±0.0
Sonst.
1.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
ZP
-2.4
KO
+1.3
PL2050/PSL
-0.4
Kon
+1.8
Lewica
+0.4
BS
+0.4
Social Changes – 1081 respondents – 10.11.2023-13.11.2023
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates KO lower
In 45% of election polls Social Changes rates KO lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Kon higher
In 46% of election polls, Social Changes rates Kon higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PL2050/PSL lower
In 79% of election polls Social Changes rates PL2050/PSL lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates ZP higher
In 44% of election polls, Social Changes rates ZP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Poland - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Poland from Social Changes shows the following results: ZP 33%, KO 32%, PL2050/PSL 14%, Kon 9%, Lewica 9% and BS 2%. If an election were held in Poland this Sunday, Kon might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.8 growth since the last election. ZP, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. With 56.7% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Social Changes. For this purpose, 1081 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (10.11.2023 - 13.11.2023).

Coalition possibilities

460
Lewica
42
PL2050/PSL
66
KO
152
ZP
157
Kon
43
Majority requires 231 seats
ZP + KO
309
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Kon
266
ZP + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
265
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
261
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
260
ZP + Kon + Lewica
242
KO + Kon + Lewica
237

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Poland was conducted by Social Changes. The survey took place between 10.11.2023 and 13.11.2023 among 1081 eligible voters. After this election poll would get ZP 33%, KO 32%, PL2050/PSL 14%, Kon 9%, Lewica 9% and BS 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.