Portugal
Election trend
Parties

Portugal: Poll by ICS/ISCTE from 01.11.2021

Polling data

PS
40.0
+3.0
PSD
26.0
-3.0
CH
10.0
+4.0
CDU
6.0
-1.0
BE
5.0
-4.0
PAN
2.0
±0.0
IL
2.0
+1.0
PP
1.0
±0.0
Sonst.
8.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+11.3
PSD
CH
-8.1
CDU
+2.7
BE
+0.5
PAN
+0.1
IL
-3.1
PP
ICS/ISCTE – 800 respondents – 21.10.2021-01.11.2021
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Low number of respondents
Only 800 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.
Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda lower
In 31% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Bloco de Esquerda lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Chega higher
In 33% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Chega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower
In 50% of election polls ICS/ISCTE rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Partido Socialista higher
In 38% of election polls, ICS/ISCTE rates Partido Socialista higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from ICS/ISCTE shows the following results: Partido Socialista 40%, PSD 26%, Chega 10%, CDU 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, PAN 2%, Iniciativa Liberal 2% and CDS–Partido Popular 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +11.3 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-8.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by ICS/ISCTE. For this purpose, 800 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 11 days (21.10.2021 - 01.11.2021).

Coalition possibilities

230
CDU
15
BE
12
PAN
5
PS
101
IL
5
PSD
65
CH
25
PP
2
Majority requires 116 seats
Partido Socialista + PSD
166
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
118
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal
118
Partido Socialista + CDU
116
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda
113

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by ICS/ISCTE. The survey took place between 21.10.2021 and 01.11.2021 among 800 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 40%, PSD 26%, Chega 10%, CDU 6%, Bloco de Esquerda 5%, PAN 2%, Iniciativa Liberal 2% and CDS–Partido Popular 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.