Portugal
Election trend
Parties

Portugal: Poll by Aximage from 14.01.2023

Polling data

PS
27.1
-7.4
PSD
25.1
-5.8
CH
12.9
+4.0
IL
9.5
+2.8
BE
6.6
+2.8
CDU
4.8
+1.6
L
3.4
+1.3
PAN
3.1
+0.1
Sonst.
7.5
+0.6
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
-1.6
PSD
CH
-5.2
IL
+4.4
BE
+2.1
CDU
+1.5
L
+0.1
PAN
+1.2
Aximage – 805 respondents – 10.01.2023-14.01.2023
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Low number of respondents
Only 805 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.
Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal lower
In 30% of election polls Aximage rates Iniciativa Liberal lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from Aximage shows the following results: Partido Socialista 27.1%, PSD 25.1%, Chega 12.9%, Iniciativa Liberal 9.5%, Bloco de Esquerda 6.6%, CDU 4.8%, LIVRE 3.4% and PAN 3.1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Iniciativa Liberal might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.4 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Aximage. For this purpose, 805 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (10.01.2023 - 14.01.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
BE
16
CDU
12
L
8
PAN
7
PS
68
IL
24
PSD
63
CH
32
Majority requires 116 seats
Partido Socialista + PSD
131
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
120
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU + LIVRE + PAN
119
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
119
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + LIVRE
116
Partido Socialista + Iniciativa Liberal + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
115

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Aximage. The survey took place between 10.01.2023 and 14.01.2023 among 805 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 27.1%, PSD 25.1%, Chega 12.9%, Iniciativa Liberal 9.5%, Bloco de Esquerda 6.6%, CDU 4.8%, LIVRE 3.4% and PAN 3.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.