Portugal: Poll by Intercampus from 21.12.2023

Portugal: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
29.3
+3.7
PSD
25.9
+2.2
CH
13.4
-1.2
BE
10.1
-0.2
IL
7.6
-1.5
PAN
3.5
-1.3
L
3.3
+0.1
CDU
2.6
-0.9
PP
1.8
-0.3
Others
2.5
-0.6
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+0.6
PSD
New
CH
-4.7
BE
+5.6
IL
+2.5
PAN
+1.6
L
±0.0
CDU
-0.7
PP
New
Intercampus – 611 respondents – 18.12.2023-21.12.2023

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 60.

Low number of respondents

Only 611 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher

In 45% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 35% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 38% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSD lower

In 60% of election polls Intercampus rates PSD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: Partido Socialista 29.3%, PSD 25.9%, Chega 13.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 10.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 7.6%, PAN 3.5%, LIVRE 3.3%, CDU 2.6% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.8%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.6 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 611 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (18.12.2023 - 21.12.2023).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
24
10.4%
CDU
6
2.6%
PAN
8
3.5%
L
7
3%
PS
70
30.4%
IL
18
7.8%
PSD
62
27%
CH
31
13.5%
PP
4
1.7%
Partido Socialista + PSD
57.4%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN
52.2%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + LIVRE
51.7%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
51.3%
PSD + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal + CDS–Partido Popular
50.0%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN + LIVRE + CDU
50.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 18.12.2023 and 21.12.2023 among 611 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 29.3%, PSD 25.9%, Chega 13.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 10.1%, Iniciativa Liberal 7.6%, PAN 3.5%, LIVRE 3.3%, CDU 2.6% and CDS–Partido Popular 1.8%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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