Portugal
Election trend
Parties

Portugal: Poll by Intercampus from 20.01.2024

Polling data

PS
30.9
+1.6
AD
24.3
+24.3
CH
19.4
+6.0
BE
8.7
-1.4
IL
6.3
-1.3
CDU
4.6
+2.0
PAN
2.6
-0.9
L
1.5
-1.8
Sonst.
1.7
-28.5
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+2.2
AD
-5.2
CH
+1.3
BE
+4.2
IL
+1.2
CDU
+1.3
PAN
+0.7
L
-1.8
Intercampus – 637 respondents – 16.01.2024-20.01.2024
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Low number of respondents
Only 637 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.
Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher
In 43% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Chega higher
In 32% of election polls, Intercampus rates Chega higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher
In 35% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower
In 43% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: Partido Socialista 30.9%, Aliança Democrática 24.3%, Chega 19.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 8.7%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.3%, CDU 4.6%, PAN 2.6% and LIVRE 1.5%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.2 growth since the last election. Aliança Democrática, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 24.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 637 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (16.01.2024 - 20.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
BE
20
CDU
11
PAN
6
L
3
PS
73
IL
14
AD
57
CH
46
Majority requires 116 seats
Partido Socialista + Aliança Democrática
130
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
118
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
117
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN + LIVRE
116
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN
113
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
113

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 16.01.2024 and 20.01.2024 among 637 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 30.9%, Aliança Democrática 24.3%, Chega 19.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 8.7%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.3%, CDU 4.6%, PAN 2.6% and LIVRE 1.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.