countries.PT: Poll by Intercampus from 20.01.2024

countries.PT: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PS
30.9
+1.6
AD
24.3
+24.3
CH
19.4
+6.0
BE
8.7
-1.4
IL
6.3
-1.3
CDU
4.6
+2.0
PAN
2.6
-0.9
L
1.5
-1.8
Others
1.7
-28.5
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+2.2
AD
-5.2
CH
+1.3
BE
+4.2
IL
+1.2
CDU
+1.3
PAN
+0.7
L
-1.8
Intercampus – 637 respondents – 16.01.2024-20.01.2024

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in countries.PT will be held in 54.

Low number of respondents

Only 637 eligible voters were polled for this election poll.

Institute often rates Aliança Democrática lower

In 42% of election polls Intercampus rates Aliança Democrática lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Bloco de Esquerda higher

In 45% of election polls, Intercampus rates Bloco de Esquerda higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Iniciativa Liberal higher

In 35% of election polls, Intercampus rates Iniciativa Liberal higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Partido Socialista lower

In 38% of election polls Intercampus rates Partido Socialista lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

countries.PT - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal from Intercampus shows the following results: Partido Socialista 30.9%, Aliança Democrática 24.3%, Chega 19.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 8.7%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.3%, CDU 4.6%, PAN 2.6% and LIVRE 1.5%. If an election were held in countries.PT this Sunday, Bloco de Esquerda might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.2 growth since the last election. Aliança Democrática, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 24.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Intercampus. For this purpose, 637 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (16.01.2024 - 20.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
20
8.7%
CDU
11
4.8%
PAN
6
2.6%
L
3
1.3%
PS
73
31.7%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
57
24.8%
CH
46
20%
Partido Socialista + Aliança Democrática
56.5%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + CDU
51.3%
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
50.9%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN + LIVRE
50.4%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + Iniciativa Liberal + PAN
49.1%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU + PAN + LIVRE
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by Intercampus. The survey took place between 16.01.2024 and 20.01.2024 among 637 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 30.9%, Aliança Democrática 24.3%, Chega 19.4%, Bloco de Esquerda 8.7%, Iniciativa Liberal 6.3%, CDU 4.6%, PAN 2.6% and LIVRE 1.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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