Portugal: Poll by CESOP–UCP from 29.09.2019

Polling data

PS
37.0
-2.0
PSD
30.0
+2.0
BE
10.0
+1.0
CDU
6.0
-2.0
PP
5.0
-2.0
PAN
3.0
±0.0
CH
1.0
±0.0
IL
1.0
±0.0
L
1.0
±0.0
A
1.0
±0.0
Others
5.0
+3.0
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
PS
+8.3
PSD
New
BE
+5.5
CDU
+2.7
PP
New
PAN
+1.1
CH
-17.1
IL
-4.1
L
-2.3
A
New
CESOP–UCP – 3226 respondents – 26.09.2019-29.09.2019

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.

Election poll results

Portugal - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Portugal from CESOP–UCP shows the following results: Partido Socialista 37%, PSD 30%, Bloco de Esquerda 10%, CDU 6%, CDS–Partido Popular 5%, PAN 3%, Chega 1%, Iniciativa Liberal 1%, LIVRE 1% and Aliança 1%. If an election were held in Portugal this Sunday, Partido Socialista might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.3 growth since the last election. Chega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-17.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Aliança Democrática. With 0.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by CESOP–UCP. For this purpose, 3226 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (26.09.2019 - 29.09.2019).

Coalition possibilities

230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
24
10.5%
CDU
14
6.3%
PAN
7
3.2%
L
2
1.1%
PS
91
38.9%
A
2
1.1%
IL
2
1.1%
PSD
74
31.6%
PP
12
5.3%
CH
2
1.1%
Partido Socialista + PSD
70.5%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + CDU
55.7%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda + PAN
52.6%
Partido Socialista + Bloco de Esquerda
49.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Portugal was conducted by CESOP–UCP. The survey took place between 26.09.2019 and 29.09.2019 among 3226 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Socialista 37%, PSD 30%, Bloco de Esquerda 10%, CDU 6%, CDS–Partido Popular 5%, PAN 3%, Chega 1%, Iniciativa Liberal 1%, LIVRE 1% and Aliança 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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