Latest voting intention survey by Market LINKS for Bulgaria
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Bulgaria conducted by Market LINKS, the parties received the following results: GERB 27.5%, PP/DB 15.4%, Vŭzrazhdane 14.1%, DPS 12.5%, BSP 7.7%, APS 6.8%, ITN 4.8% and MECh 3.6%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1007 people during the period 20.12.2024 - 20.12.2024.
1007 participants
12.12.2024 - 20.12.2024
Market LINKS
GERB
27.5
-2.0
PP/DB
15.4
-4.7
V
14.1
-0.6
DPS
12.5
-2.5
BSP
7.7
-1.5
APS
6.8
+6.8
ITN
4.8
+1.2
MECh
3.6
+3.6
Others
7.6
-0.3
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
21
8.8%
APS
18
7.5%
ITN
13
5.4%
DPS
34
14.2%
GERB
75
31.3%
PP/DB
41
17.1%
V
38
15.8%
GERB + PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane
GERB + PP/DB + DPS
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + DPS
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + APS
GERB + DPS + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
GERB + BSP + APS + ITN
GERB + DPS + APS
PP/DB + DPS + BSP + APS + ITN
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane + DPS + ITN
GERB + DPS + ITN
55
PolitPro Score
Market LINKS achieves a score of 55/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.3
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Market LINKS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.73
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 1/6 |
|
2.23
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 3/3 |
|
1.83
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 1/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.