Latest voting intention survey by Market LINKS for Bulgaria
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Bulgaria conducted by Market LINKS, the parties received the following results: GERB 27.5%, PP/DB 15.4%, Vŭzrazhdane 14.1%, DPS 12.5%, BSP 7.7%, APS 6.8%, ITN 4.8% and MECh 3.6%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1007 people during the period 20.12.2024 - 20.12.2024.
1007 participants
12.12.2024 - 20.12.2024
Market LINKS
Seats in parliament
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
21
8.8%
APS
18
7.5%
ITN
13
5.4%
DPS
34
14.2%
GERB
75
31.3%
PP/DB
41
17.1%
V
38
15.8%
GERB + PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane
GERB + PP/DB + DPS
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + DPS
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + APS
GERB + DPS + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
GERB + BSP + APS + ITN
GERB + DPS + APS
PP/DB + DPS + BSP + APS + ITN
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane + DPS + ITN
GERB + DPS + ITN
Rating of parties
Institute often rates GERB lower
In 40% of election polls Market LINKS rates GERB lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates ITN lower
In 37% of election polls Market LINKS rates ITN lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Market LINKS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.73
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 1/6 |
|
1.83
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 1/5 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.