Latest voting intention survey by Panelbase for Ireland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Ireland conducted by Panelbase, the parties received the following results: Fianna Fáil 23%, Sinn Féin 21%, Fine Gael 19%, Green Party 10%, Labour Party 5%, Social Democrats 5% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 30.01.2020 - 30.01.2020. The survey was commissioned by The Times.
1000 participants
24.01.2020 - 30.01.2020
Panelbase
The Times
Seats in parliament
160
Majority requires 81 seats
SF
38
23.8%
S-PBP
9
5.6%
Lab
9
5.6%
SD
9
5.6%
GP
18
11.3%
FF
42
26.3%
FG
35
21.9%
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Green Party
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Labour Party
Fianna Fáil + Fine Gael + Social Democrats
Sinn Féin + Green Party + Labour Party + Solidarity–People Before Profit + Social Democrats
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Panelbase pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.03
|
Parliamentary Election in Irland 2020 | 4/4 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.