Current election polls and polling data from PGB Opinium

Latest voting intention survey by PGB Opinium for Poland

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by PGB Opinium, the parties received the following results: PiS 33.2%, KO 30.6%, PL2050/PSL 11.9%, Lewica 11.6%, Kon 8.5% and BS 3.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1100 people during the period 12.10.2023 - 12.10.2023.
1100 participants
11.10.2023 - 12.10.2023
PGB Opinium
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
PiS
33.2
+0.3
KO
30.6
-1.7
PL2050/PSL
11.9
+0.3
Lewica
11.6
+1.5
Kon
8.5
-0.4
BS
3.1
-0.2
Others
1.1
+0.2
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
55
12%
PL2050/PSL
57
12.4%
KO
147
32%
PiS
160
34.8%
Kon
41
8.9%
PiS + KO
66.7%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
59.1%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
56.3%
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Kon
56.1%
PiS + Lewica + Kon
55.7%
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
53.3%
KO + Lewica + Kon
52.8%

67

PolitPro Score

PGB Opinium achieves a score of 67/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
BS
Not enough data available
KO
27
67
7
Kon
0
53
47
Lewica
8
85
8
PL2050/PSL
50
17
33
PiS
67
33
0

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.7

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in PGB Opinium pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.68
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2023 2/11

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.