Latest voting intention survey by BiDiMedia for Italy
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Italy conducted by BiDiMedia, the parties received the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 29%, Partito Democratico 23.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 10.9%, Lega 9%, Forza Italia 8.6%, AVS 6.7%, Azione 3%, Italia Viva 2%, Più Europa 1.6%, PTD 1.4%, DSp 0.9%, Italexit 0.9%, ScN 0.8% and NM 0.7%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 07.09.2024 - 07.09.2024.
1000 participants
05.09.2024 - 07.09.2024
BiDiMedia
FdI
29.0
+0.5
PD
23.5
+3.8
M5S
10.9
-4.4
Lega
9.0
+0.3
FI
8.6
+1.8
AVS
6.7
+3.4
A
3.0
-1.4
IV
2.0
-0.9
+E
1.6
-1.1
PTD
1.4
+1.4
DSP
0.9
-0.4
Exit
0.9
-0.7
ScN
0.8
+0.8
NM
0.7
-0.1
Others
1.0
-3.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
48
12%
AVS
29
7.3%
PD
104
26%
A
13
3.3%
FI
38
9.5%
FdI
129
32.3%
Lega
39
9.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
80
PolitPro Score
BiDiMedia achieves a score of 80/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.6
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in BiDiMedia pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.61
|
Parliamentary Election in Italien 2022 | 11/18 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.