Current election polls and polling data from Ipsos

Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for Poland

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Poland conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: PiS 34%, KO 31%, Kon 17%, Lewica 9% and PL2050/PSL 8%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 18.09.2024 - 18.09.2024.
1000 participants
10.09.2024 - 18.09.2024
Ipsos
Development since the last election on 15.10.2023
PiS
34.0
+2.7
KO
31.0
+0.8
Kon
17.0
+4.5
Lewica
9.0
+2.7
PL2050/PSL
8.0
-5.5
Others
1.0
-5.2
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
42
9.1%
PL2050/PSL
37
8%
KO
144
31.3%
PiS
158
34.3%
Kon
79
17.2%
PiS + KO
65.7%
KO + Kon + Lewica
57.6%
KO + Kon + PL2050/PSL
56.5%
PiS + Kon
51.5%
PiS + Lewica + PL2050/PSL
51.5%

64

PolitPro Score

Ipsos achieves a score of 64/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
KO
43
50
7
Kon
7
46
46
Lewica
22
56
22
PL2050/PSL
56
33
11
PiS
25
67
8

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.2

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.2 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
2.23
Parliamentary Election in Polen 2023 9/11

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.