Italy
Election trend
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Elections

Italy: Poll by Noto from 07.09.2022

Polling data

FdI
24.3
+0.8
PD
19.5
-0.5
M5S
13.5
+1.0
Lega
13.0
-0.5
A/IV
7.7
-0.3
FI
6.9
-0.6
AVS
2.7
-0.3
Exit
2.7
-0.1
NM
2.5
±0.0
IC
2.2
+2.2
+E
1.3
+1.3
Others
3.7
±0.0
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
-1.7
PD
+0.4
M5S
-1.9
Lega
+4.2
A/IV
-0.1
FI
-1.2
AVS
-0.9
Exit
+0.8
NM
+1.6
IC
+1.6
+E
-1.5
Noto – 1000 respondents – 06.09.2022-07.09.2022
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates A/IV higher
In 30% of election polls, Noto rates A/IV higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Partito Democratico lower
In 34% of election polls Noto rates Partito Democratico lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from Noto shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 24.3%, Partito Democratico 19.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 13.5%, Lega 13%, A/IV 7.7%, Forza Italia 6.9%, AVS 2.7%, Italexit 2.7%, NM 2.5%, IC 2.2% and Più Europa 1.3%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Lega might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.2 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.9) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 52.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Noto. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (06.09.2022 - 07.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
62.3
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
59.8
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
56.1
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
52.6
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
52.0

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by Noto. The survey took place between 06.09.2022 and 07.09.2022 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 24.3%, Partito Democratico 19.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 13.5%, Lega 13%, A/IV 7.7%, Forza Italia 6.9%, AVS 2.7%, Italexit 2.7%, NM 2.5%, IC 2.2% and Più Europa 1.3%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.

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