Italy: Poll by EMG from 07.09.2022

Polling data

FdI
24.5
+0.7
PD
19.5
-1.4
M5S
13.0
+1.0
Lega
12.0
-0.3
FI
8.0
-0.2
A/IV
8.0
+0.3
+E
3.0
+0.7
AVS
3.0
-0.1
NM
3.0
-0.1
Exit
2.5
-0.4
IC
1.5
+0.3
Others
2.0
-0.5
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
-1.5
PD
+0.4
M5S
-2.4
Lega
+3.2
FI
-0.1
A/IV
+0.2
+E
+0.2
AVS
-0.6
NM
+2.1
Exit
+0.6
IC
+0.9
EMG – 1000 respondents – 05.09.2022-07.09.2022

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from EMG shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 24.5%, Partito Democratico 19.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 13%, Lega 12%, Forza Italia 8%, A/IV 8%, Più Europa 3%, AVS 3%, NM 3%, Italexit 2.5% and IC 1.5%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Lega might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.2 growth since the last election. Movimento 5 Stelle, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 47.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by EMG. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (05.09.2022 - 07.09.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
56
13.8%
AVS
12
3.2%
PD
84
20.7%
A/IV
34
8.5%
+E
12
3.2%
FI
34
8.5%
NM
12
3.2%
FdI
105
26.1%
Lega
51
12.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
56.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
53.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + A/IV
52.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Più Europa
51.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + NM
51.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + Più Europa
50.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + NM
50.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Più Europa + AVS
49.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Più Europa + NM
49.5%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Più Europa + NM
49.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
47.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by EMG. The survey took place between 05.09.2022 and 07.09.2022 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 24.5%, Partito Democratico 19.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 13%, Lega 12%, Forza Italia 8%, A/IV 8%, Più Europa 3%, AVS 3%, NM 3%, Italexit 2.5% and IC 1.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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