Italy
Election trend
Parties

Italy: Poll by SWG from 24.10.2022

Polling data

FdI
28.3
+0.9
PD
17.0
±0.0
M5S
16.4
-0.3
Lega
8.6
+0.1
A/IV
8.4
+0.3
FI
6.2
-1.3
AVS
4.1
±0.0
+E
3.1
-0.2
Exit
2.6
+0.1
UP
1.2
+0.1
Sonst.
4.1
+0.3
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+2.3
PD
-2.1
M5S
+1.0
Lega
-0.2
A/IV
+0.6
FI
-1.9
AVS
+0.5
+E
+0.3
Exit
+0.7
UP
-0.2
SWG – 1200 respondents – 19.10.2022-24.10.2022
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Italy from SWG shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 28.3%, Partito Democratico 17%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.4%, Lega 8.6%, A/IV 8.4%, Forza Italia 6.2%, AVS 4.1%, Più Europa 3.1%, Italexit 2.6% and UP 1.2%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Fratelli d’Italia might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.3 growth since the last election. Partito Democratico, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. With 46.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by SWG. For this purpose, 1200 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (19.10.2022 - 24.10.2022).

Coalition possibilities

400
M5S
71
AVS
18
PD
74
A/IV
36
+E
13
FI
27
FdI
124
Lega
37
Majority requires 201 seats
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
232
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
222
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + AVS + Più Europa
212
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
213
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
209
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + Forza Italia
208
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Più Europa
208
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + Più Europa
201
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + A/IV + AVS
199
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
188

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by SWG. The survey took place between 19.10.2022 and 24.10.2022 among 1200 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 28.3%, Partito Democratico 17%, Movimento 5 Stelle 16.4%, Lega 8.6%, A/IV 8.4%, Forza Italia 6.2%, AVS 4.1%, Più Europa 3.1%, Italexit 2.6% and UP 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.