Italy: Poll by EMG from 24.01.2024

Polling data

FdI
27.3
-0.2
PD
18.7
-0.1
M5S
17.0
±0.0
FI
8.3
-0.2
Lega
8.1
+0.1
IV
4.2
+0.2
AVS
3.5
+0.5
A
3.5
-0.5
+E
2.7
+0.2
NM
1.2
±0.0
UP
1.1
-0.2
Others
4.4
+0.2
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+1.3
PD
-0.4
M5S
+1.6
FI
+0.2
Lega
-0.7
IV
New
AVS
-0.1
A
New
+E
-0.1
NM
+0.3
UP
-0.3
EMG – 1501 respondents – 23.01.2024-24.01.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Italia Viva higher

In 51% of election polls, EMG rates Italia Viva higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates NM higher

In 38% of election polls, EMG rates NM higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Italy - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Italy from EMG shows the following results: Fratelli d’Italia 27.3%, Partito Democratico 18.7%, Movimento 5 Stelle 17%, Forza Italia 8.3%, Lega 8.1%, Italia Viva 4.2%, AVS 3.5%, Azione 3.5%, Più Europa 2.7%, NM 1.2% and UP 1.1%. If an election were held in Italy this Sunday, Movimento 5 Stelle might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.6 growth since the last election. Lega, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-0.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition from Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. With 48.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by EMG. For this purpose, 1501 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 1 days (23.01.2024 - 24.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
76
19%
AVS
15
3.8%
PD
83
20.8%
A
15
3.8%
IV
18
4.5%
FI
37
9.3%
FdI
121
30.3%
Lega
35
8.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
58.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
58.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
57.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Italia Viva
53.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Italia Viva
53.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
53.0%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
52.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Forza Italia + Lega + Italia Viva
52.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Italia Viva + Azione + AVS
51.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle
49.3%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
49.0%
Fratelli d’Italia + Forza Italia + Lega
48.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Italy was conducted by EMG. The survey took place between 23.01.2024 and 24.01.2024 among 1501 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Fratelli d’Italia 27.3%, Partito Democratico 18.7%, Movimento 5 Stelle 17%, Forza Italia 8.3%, Lega 8.1%, Italia Viva 4.2%, AVS 3.5%, Azione 3.5%, Più Europa 2.7%, NM 1.2% and UP 1.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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