Current election polls and polling data from OpinionWay

Latest voting intention survey by OpinionWay for France

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in France conducted by OpinionWay, the parties received the following results: Rassemblement national 37%, NFP 28%, Ensemble 20%, Les Républicains 6%, Divers droite 2%, Divers gauche 1%, Extrême gauche 1%, Reconquête 1% and Les Verts 0.5%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1058 people during the period 27.06.2024 - 27.06.2024.
1058 participants
26.06.2024 - 27.06.2024
OpinionWay
RN
37.0
+2.0
NFP
28.0
±0.0
EN
20.0
-2.0
LR
6.0
±0.0
DVD
2.0
-1.0
DVG
1.0
±0.0
EXG
1.0
±0.0
REC
1.0
±0.0
EELV
0.5
±0.0
Others
3.5
+1.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

577
Majority requires 289 seats
EXG
6
1%
NFP
167
28.9%
DVG
6
1%
EELV
3
0.5%
EN
120
20.8%
LR
36
6.2%
RN
221
38.3%
DVD
12
2.1%
REC
6
1%
Rassemblement national + NFP
67.2%
Rassemblement national + Ensemble
59.1%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers droite
51.8%
NFP + Ensemble + Divers gauche
50.8%
NFP + Ensemble + Extrême gauche
50.8%
NFP + Ensemble + Les Verts
50.3%
NFP + Ensemble
49.7%

65

PolitPro Score

OpinionWay achieves a score of 65/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
DVD
40
40
20
DVG
0
100
0
EELV
12
83
5
EN
8
86
6
EXG
Not enough data available
LR
2
56
42
NFP
50
50
0
REC
26
64
10
RN
12
67
21

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.0

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in OpinionWay pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.0 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.