Who is leading the election trend?
In the current election trend for the State election in Brandenburg, AfD is leading with 28.1%, followed by SPD with 21.6%, CDU with 16.7%, BSW with 15%, Grüne with 5.2%, Die Linke with 3.9%, BVB/FW with 3.8% and FDP with 1.2%. Other parties reach 4.5%.
On the rise: AfD
+3.5 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: CDU
-1.9 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 22.09.2024
The next general election in Brandenburg will be held in 7.
Government would have to worry
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 50.2% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 01.09.2019
Who could enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: SPD reaches 22 MPs, Grüne reaches 5 MPs, BSW reaches 15 MPs, CDU reaches 17 MPs and AfD reaches 29 MPs.
5% restrictive clause
The restrictive clause is 5%.
Majority from 45 MPs
To form a government, 45 of 88 MPs are required.
SPD + CDU + BSW
AfD + CDU
SPD + CDU + Grüne
AfD + BSW
88
SPD
22
Grüne
5
BSW
15
CDU
17
AfD
29
Majority requires 45 seats
On the rise: AfD
+3.5 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: CDU
-1.9 loss in the last 30 days
| Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD |
+3.5
|
+0.1
|
+1.9
|
-3.0
|
+4.6
|
| SPD |
+2.3
|
+4.3
|
+2.1
|
+0.7
|
-4.6
|
| CDU |
-1.9
|
-0.4
|
-1.8
|
-0.9
|
+1.1
|
| BSW |
-1.9
|
-0.4
|
+4.3
|
±0.0
|
+15.0
|
| Grüne |
-0.1
|
-0.5
|
-2.6
|
-2.8
|
-5.6
|
| Die Linke |
-0.7
|
-0.3
|
-2.9
|
-4.4
|
-6.8
|
| BVB/FW |
-0.3
|
-1.3
|
-0.4
|
-2.2
|
-1.2
|
| FDP |
-0.9
|
-0.6
|
-1.8
|
-2.4
|
-2.9
|
Brandenburg — National parliament voting intention
Election 2024
General Info: Election Day, Eligible Voters & Electorate
The state election in Brandenburg will take place on September 22, 2024. Eligible voters include all German citizens aged 18 or older who have lived in Brandenburg for at least one month. Approximately 2.1 million citizens are expected to vote. Voter turnout is crucial, as many voters often make their final decision shortly before the election.
Electoral Threshold & Mandates
Brandenburg enforces a 5% electoral threshold, meaning parties must secure at least 5% of the vote to gain seats in the state parliament. The Landtag consists of a minimum of 88 seats, but this number may increase due to overhang and compensatory mandates, ensuring proportional representation.
Electoral System
Brandenburg uses a personalized proportional representation system. Voters cast two votes: the first for a direct candidate in their constituency, and the second for a party’s state list. The second vote determines the overall distribution of seats in the parliament, while the first vote secures regional representation.
Polling Trends: Polling Data and Events
Recent polls show the AfD, the SPD on top of the polls. BSW and CDU are on a close fight for the third place. Events such as the Ukraine war and inflation significantly influence voter preferences.
Coalition Possibilities
The formation of a coalition could become complicated in the 2024 state elections in Brandenburg. A continuation of the current red-black-green coalition of SPD, CDU and Greens could be narrowly possible. Alternatively, a three-party coalition of SPD, CDU and BSW would also be possible. Should the Greens fail to enter parliament, a grand coalition of SPD and CDU could be another alternative. Cooperation between the CDU and the AfD is also being discussed, although this is politically controversial.
Candidates for Minister-President
The focus is on the lead candidates for each party. Incumbent Minister-President Dietmar Woidke (SPD) seeks re-election, while prominent contenders include Hans-Christoph Berndt from the AfD and Jan Redmann from the CDU.
Current Government
Brandenburg is currently governed by a 'Kenya coalition' of the SPD, CDU, and Greens, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke. This coalition has been in power since 2019 and faces growing challenges from the rise of the AfD and increasing public dissatisfaction.
2019 Election
In the 2019 state election, the SPD led by Dietmar Woidke secured 26.2% of the vote, followed by the AfD with 23.5%. The CDU garnered 15.6%, while the Greens and the Left Party each surpassed 10%. This result led to the formation of the current coalition between SPD, CDU, and Greens.
Dietmar Woidke
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament
: 88
Government & opposition
Government
: 50
Opposition
: 38
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties
: 45
Right-leaning parties
: 43
FAQ
When is the next election in Brandenburg?
The next election in Brandenburg is on 22.09.2024.
Who is the president of Brandenburg?
The head of state of Brandenburg is Dietmar Woidke.
Who governs in Brandenburg?
Dietmar Woidke governs in Brandenburg with a coalition of SPD, CDU and Grüne.
What is the latest poll for Brandenburg?
The latest poll for the election in Brandenburg was published by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 29%, SPD 26%, CDU 15%, BSW 14%, Grüne 5%, BVB/FW 3% and Die Linke 3%.
Which parties are in the parliament of Brandenburg?
In the parliament of Brandenburg, there are 88 representatives from 6 parties. 50 representatives are part of the government from SPD, CDU and Grüne. The opposition from AfD, Die Linke and BVB/FW has 38 representatives.