Polls, trends and elections for Brandenburg

Current Election Trend for Brandenburg

AfD
25.4
SPD
19.7
CDU
18.3
BSW
12.1
Grüne
7.1
Linke
5.9
BVB/FW
4.8
FDP
2.8
Sonst.
3.9
On the rise: BSW
+2.1 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: SPD
-1.6 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 22.09.2024
The next general election in Brandenburg will be held in 119.
Government would have to worry
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 51.0% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Brandenburg?

In the current election trend in Brandenburg, AfD leads with 25.4%. This is an increase of +1.9 percentage points since the last election.

SPD reaches 19.7%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-6.5).

CDU lands at 18.3% and gains +2.7 percentage points since the last election.

BSW reaches 12.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 7.1% (-3.7).

Die Linke experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 5.9% (-4.8).

BVB/FW (4.8%) and FDP (2.8%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

3.9% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from INSA, Infratest dimap for RBB Brandenburg aktuell / Antenne Brandenburg and Institut Wahlkreisprognose, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3261 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Brandenburg, the government from SPD, CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen would secure 51% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: AfD, SPD, CDU, BSW, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and Die Linke reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 61.3% - 38.7% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Brandenburg

What is the latest poll for Brandenburg?

The latest poll for the election in Brandenburg was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 25%, CDU 19%, SPD 19%, BSW 13%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 7%, Die Linke 6%, BVB/FW 5% and FDP 3%.

Coalitions

88
Linke
6
SPD
20
Grüne
7
BSW
12
CDU
18
AfD
25
Majority requires 45 seats
AfD + CDU + BSW
SPD + CDU + BSW
SPD + CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
SPD + BSW + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + Die Linke

Which coalitions are currently possible in Brandenburg?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from AfD, CDU and BSW, Coalition from SPD, CDU and BSW, Coalition from SPD, CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and Coalition from SPD, BSW, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and Die Linke each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Brandenburg shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: BSW
+2.1 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: SPD
-1.6 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
AfD
SPD
CDU
BSW
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Die Linke
BVB/FW
FDP
Show more

Brandenburg — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Brandenburg in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Brandenburg took place on 01.09.2019.

Government and parliament

Dietmar Woidke
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 88
Government & opposition
Government : 50
Opposition : 38
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 45
Right-leaning parties : 43

Which parties are in the parliament of Brandenburg?

In the parliament of Brandenburg, there are 88 representatives from 6 parties. 50 representatives are part of the government from SPD, CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from AfD, Die Linke and BVB/FW has 38 representatives.

45 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 43 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Brandenburg?

Dietmar Woidke governs in Brandenburg with a coalition of SPD, CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

State election in Brandenburg 2024

The State election in Brandenburg 2024 will take place on 22.09.2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Dietmar Woidke is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, CDU and SPD. In the last State election in Brandenburg in 2019, SPD (26.2% - 25 seats), AfD (23.5% - 23 seats), CDU (15.6% - 15 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (10.8% - 10 seats), Die Linke (10.7% - 10 seats) and BVB/FW (5% - 5 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 61.3%.