Polls, trends and elections for Lower Saxony

Current Election Trend for Lower Saxony

CDU
28.0
SPD
26.0
AfD
18.0
Grüne
13.0
FDP
5.0
Sonst.
10.0
Development since the last election on 09.10.2022
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Lower Saxony is expected to take place in 2027.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 43.3% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Lower Saxony?

In the current election trend in Lower Saxony, CDU leads with 28% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.1 percentage points).

SPD reaches 26%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-7.4).

AfD reaches 18%. This is a significant increase of +7.1 percentage points since the last election.

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 13% (-1.5).

FDP reaches 5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.3 percentage points).

10% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Allensbach for Drei-Quellen-Mediengruppe, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1178 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Lower Saxony, the government from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen would secure 43.3% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: CDU, SPD, AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 60.3% - 39.7% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Lower Saxony

Infratest dimap
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
INSA
· 4 months ago
4 months ago
Open Details

What is the latest poll for Lower Saxony?

The latest poll for the election in Lower Saxony was published by Allensbach. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 30%, SPD 29%, AfD 21%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 11%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%.

Coalitions

CDU + SPD
60.0
CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + FDP
51.1
CDU + AfD
51.1
SPD + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + FDP
48.9
CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
45.5
SPD + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
43.3
Show more

Which coalitions are currently possible in Lower Saxony?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CDU and SPD, Coalition from CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP and Coalition from CDU and AfD each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Lower Saxony shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: AfD
+0.8 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: CDU
-0.8 loss in the last 3 months
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CDU
SPD
AfD
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
FDP
Show more

Lower Saxony — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Lower Saxony in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Lower Saxony took place on 09.10.2022.

Government and parliament

Stephan Weil
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 146
Government & opposition
Government : 81
Opposition : 65
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 81
Right-leaning parties : 65

Which parties are in the parliament of Lower Saxony?

In the parliament of Lower Saxony, there are 146 representatives from 4 parties. 81 representatives are part of the government from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from CDU and AfD has 65 representatives.

81 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 65 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Lower Saxony?

Stephan Weil governs in Lower Saxony with a coalition of SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

State election in Lower Saxony 2027

The State election in Lower Saxony 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Stephan Weil is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD. In the last State election in Lower Saxony in 2022, SPD (33.4% - 57 seats), CDU (28.1% - 47 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (14.5% - 24 seats) and AfD (10.9% - 18 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 60.3%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Lower Saxony?

The next election in Lower Saxony is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who is the president of Lower Saxony?

The head of state of Lower Saxony is Stephan Weil.

Who governs in Lower Saxony?

Stephan Weil governs in Lower Saxony with a coalition of SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

What is the latest poll for Lower Saxony?

The latest poll for the election in Lower Saxony was published by Allensbach. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 30%, SPD 29%, AfD 21%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 11%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 2%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Lower Saxony?

In the parliament of Lower Saxony, there are 146 representatives from 4 parties. 81 representatives are part of the government from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from CDU and AfD has 65 representatives.