Polls, trends and elections for Saxony

Current Election Trend for Saxony

AfD
34.4
CDU
31.0
Grüne
7.0
BSW
6.9
SPD
6.6
Linke
5.7
FW
3.0
FDP
2.4
Sonst.
3.0
Next election: 01.09.2024
The next general election in Saxony will be held in 188.
Government would have to worry
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 48.6% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Saxony?

In the current election trend in Saxony, AfD leads with 34.4%. This is a significant increase of +6.9 percentage points since the last election.

CDU experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 31% (-1.1).

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 7% (-1.6).

BSW reaches 6.9%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

SPD experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 6.6% (-1.1).

Die Linke experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 5.7% (-4.7).

Freie Wähler (3%) and FDP (2.4%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

3% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Infratest dimap for MDR, Forsa for RTL / n-tv, Institut Wahlkreisprognose and Civey for Sächsische Zeitung, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 13661 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Saxony, the government from CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD would secure 48.6% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: AfD, CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, BSW, SPD and Die Linke reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 66.6% - 33.4% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Saxony

What is the latest poll for Saxony?

The latest poll for the election in Saxony was published by Infratest dimap. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 35%, CDU 30%, BSW 8%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 7%, SPD 7% and Die Linke 4%.

Coalitions

AfD + CDU
71.4
CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + BSW + SPD
AfD + BSW + Die Linke
51.3
CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + SPD
48.6

Which coalitions are currently possible in Saxony?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from AfD and CDU, Coalition from CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, BSW and SPD and Coalition from AfD, BSW and Die Linke each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Saxony shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: SPD
+2.7 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Die Linke
-2.2 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
AfD
CDU
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
BSW
SPD
Die Linke
Freie Wähler
FDP
Show more

Saxony — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Saxony in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Saxony took place on 01.09.2019.

Government and parliament

Michael Kretschmer
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 119
Government & opposition
Government : 67
Opposition : 52
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 36
Right-leaning parties : 83

Which parties are in the parliament of Saxony?

In the parliament of Saxony, there are 119 representatives from 5 parties. 67 representatives are part of the government from CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD. The opposition from AfD and Die Linke has 52 representatives.

36 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 83 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Saxony?

Michael Kretschmer governs in Saxony with a coalition of CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD.

State election in Saxony 2024

The State election in Saxony 2024 will take place on 01.09.2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Michael Kretschmer is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, CDU and SPD. In the last State election in Saxony in 2019, CDU (32.1% - 45 seats), AfD (27.5% - 38 seats), Die Linke (10.4% - 14 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (8.6% - 12 seats) and SPD (7.7% - 10 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 66.6%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Saxony?

The next election in Saxony is on 01.09.2024.

Who is the president of Saxony?

The head of state of Saxony is Michael Kretschmer.

Who governs in Saxony?

Michael Kretschmer governs in Saxony with a coalition of CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD.

What is the latest poll for Saxony?

The latest poll for the election in Saxony was published by Infratest dimap. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 35%, CDU 30%, BSW 8%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 7%, SPD 7% and Die Linke 4%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Saxony?

In the parliament of Saxony, there are 119 representatives from 5 parties. 67 representatives are part of the government from CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD. The opposition from AfD and Die Linke has 52 representatives.