PolitPro

Saxony Election polls, voting intention polls and current polling numbers

Government Majority
No Majority
36 of 120 seats in the Election Trend
Strongest Force
AfD
21.0 points ahead of CDU
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Current Election Trend: Saxony Parliamentary Election

Weighted average of all institutes. The bars show the current standing, the chips the change since the last election. Saxony Parliamentary Election Trend (as of August 19, 2026)

AfD
42.0
+11.4
CDU
21.0
-10.9
Linke
9.0
+4.5
BSW
7.0
-4.8
Grüne
6.0
+0.9
SPD
6.0
-1.3
Other
9.0
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Would Saxony's Incumbent Government Retain its Majority Today?

The governing alliance of CDU and SPD would win just 30.0% of the seats in the Election Trend – too few for a majority of its own.

Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend in Saxony?

Leading the current PolitPro Election Trend for Saxony's Parliamentary election is AfD with 42%, followed by CDU with 21%, Die Linke with 9%, BSW with 7%, Grüne with 6% and SPD with 6%. Other parties achieve 9% of the votes.

How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend

The PolitPro Election Trend offers more than a mere snapshot. We aggregate data from all relevant polling institutes, creating a weighted average for the Saxony Parliamentary election. While classic voting intention polls (“Which party would you vote for if the election were held next Sunday?”) fluctuate due to methodological factors, our Election Trend provides a statistically robust foundation. It smooths out short-term outliers, revealing genuine political dynamics over time.

By combining multiple data sources, we minimize the risk of random effects. Every survey inherently carries a statistical margin of error (typically between 1.5% and 3%). Our Saxony poll analysis precisely indicates whether a party's gain signifies a lasting development or simply falls within the statistical uncertainty of a single institute.

The calculation adheres to a transparent mathematical model: recent polls are weighted more heavily than older data. Each institute's historical forecasting accuracy also informs the calculation, offsetting methodological bias. The result is a valid trend line that precisely maps Saxony's party system.

Current government

Head of State

Michael Kretschmer

Head of Government

Michael Kretschmer

Saxony Coalition Calculator: Potential Majorities Post-Election

0
61
0 120
Majority 61

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.

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PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. AfD
    17%
  2. CDU
    0%
  3. Linke
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. AfD
    100%
  2. CDU
    <1%
  3. Linke
    0%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. Linke
    99%
  2. BSW
    93%
  3. Grüne
    78%
  4. SPD
    79%
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How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Projected composition of parliament

Based on the Election Trend, 6 parties are projected to enter Saxony's parliament: AfD with 55 seats, CDU with 28 seats, Die Linke with 12 seats, BSW with 9 seats, Grüne with 8 seats and SPD with 8 seats.

Saxony's Electoral System Explained

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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Saxony Poll Dynamics: Tracking Shifts in Voter Sentiment

API Research Data

Latest Election Polls from Polling Institutes

Score Institute Date AfD CDU Linke BSW Grüne SPD Other FW FDP Link
83 INSA May 20, 2026 42.0 21.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 9.0 – –
83 Civey January 4, 2026 35.0 29.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 1.0
How reliable are the institutes?

Archive: Comprehensive Election Poll Data for Saxony

Each year as a table: The archive's year pages are part of PolitPro+.

Recent Election Results in Saxony

2024 Parliamentary election
2019 Parliamentary election
2014 Parliamentary election
Parliamentary election 2024: CDU 31.9%, AfD 30.6%, BSW 11.8%, SPD 7.3%, Grüne 5.1%, Linke 4.5%. Parliamentary election 2019: CDU 32.1%, AfD 27.5%, SPD 7.7%, Grüne 8.6%, Linke 10.4%. Parliamentary election 2014: CDU 39.4%, AfD 9.7%, SPD 12.4%, Grüne 5.7%, Linke 18.9%

Key Political Parties in Saxony

Political Alignment
Conservative
Social
Market
Progressive
AfD Right-Populist CDU Christian Democratic Die Linke Left BSW Left-Populist Grüne Green SPD Social Democratic Show all parties

More from PolitPro

API & Data Access Access our data programmatically – for editorial teams, think tanks, and teams that need Election Trends directly in their workflow. Research Data Use our prepared datasets for research and teaching. App & Community Discuss current polls in a growing, respectful political community.

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PolitPro combines scientific data and current poll values to make politics tangible for everyone. We use datasets from leading research projects and supplement them with our own research, analyses, and algorithms. This way, we make complex political contexts understandable and accessible to all. Supported by AI.

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