Who is leading the election trend?
In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria, CSU is leading with 39%, followed by AfD with 18%, Grüne with 12%, Freie Wähler with 10%, SPD with 8%, BSW with 4%, FDP with 2% and Die Linke with 2%. Other parties reach 5%.
On the rise: AfD
+5.0 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: CSU
-4.8 loss in the last 3 months
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 56.7% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
Coalitions
Who could enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: SPD reaches 16 MPs, Grüne reaches 25 MPs, CSU reaches 81 MPs, Freie Wähler reaches 21 MPs and AfD reaches 37 MPs.
5% restrictive clause
The restrictive clause is 5%.
Majority from 91 MPs
To form a government, 91 of 180 MPs are required.
CSU + AfD
CSU + Grüne
CSU + Freie Wähler
CSU + SPD
CSU
180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
16
8.9%
Grüne
25
13.9%
CSU
81
45%
FW
21
11.7%
AfD
37
20.6%
Latest polls for Bavaria
Bavaria — National parliament voting intention
Parties in Bavaria
Election trend by party at a glance
| Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU |
±0.0
|
-4.8
|
-3.9
|
-3.0
|
+2.0
|
| AfD |
±0.0
|
+5.0
|
+1.6
|
+5.0
|
+3.4
|
| Grüne |
±0.0
|
+1.2
|
+1.9
|
-1.7
|
-2.4
|
| Freie Wähler |
±0.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.1
|
-4.2
|
-5.8
|
| SPD |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+0.1
|
+1.2
|
-0.4
|
| BSW |
±0.0
|
-0.2
|
-1.0
|
+1.0
|
+4.0
|
| Die Linke |
±0.0
|
+1.0
|
+1.0
|
+1.0
|
+0.5
|
| FDP |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-1.0
|
Government and parliament
Markus Söder
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament
: 203
Government & opposition
Government
: 122
Opposition
: 81
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties
: 49
Right-leaning parties
: 154