Who is leading the election trend?
In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Bavaria, CSU is leading with 43.8%, followed by AfD with 13%, Freie Wähler with 11%, Grüne with 10.8%, SPD with 8%, BSW with 4.2%, FDP with 2% and Die Linke with 1%. Other parties reach 6.2%.
On the rise: CSU
+0.9 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: AfD
-3.4 loss in the last 3 months
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 63.9% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 08.10.2023
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
Coalitions
Who could enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: SPD reaches 16 MPs, Grüne reaches 22 MPs, CSU reaches 92 MPs, Freie Wähler reaches 23 MPs and AfD reaches 27 MPs.
5% restrictive clause
The restrictive clause is 5%.
Majority from 91 MPs
To form a government, 91 of 180 MPs are required.
CSU + Freie Wähler
CSU
Freie Wähler + Grüne + SPD
180
Majority requires 91 seats
SPD
16
8.9%
Grüne
22
12.2%
CSU
92
51.1%
FW
23
12.8%
AfD
27
15%
Latest polls for Bavaria
Bavaria — National parliament voting intention
Parties in Bavaria
Election trend by party at a glance
| Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU |
+0.2
|
+0.9
|
+2.8
|
+3.5
|
+6.8
|
| AfD |
+0.1
|
-3.4
|
+2.0
|
-1.5
|
-1.6
|
| Freie Wähler |
±0.0
|
-0.1
|
-4.0
|
-2.8
|
-4.8
|
| Grüne |
+0.1
|
+0.7
|
-2.2
|
-2.3
|
-3.6
|
| SPD |
+0.1
|
+0.1
|
+1.0
|
+1.0
|
-0.4
|
| BSW |
-0.2
|
-0.8
|
+1.2
|
±0.0
|
+4.2
|
| FDP |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.0
|
| Die Linke |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-1.0
|
-0.3
|
-0.5
|
Government and parliament
Markus Söder
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament
: 203
Government & opposition
Government
: 122
Opposition
: 81
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties
: 49
Right-leaning parties
: 154