Upcoming elections:

Polls, trends and elections for Bavaria

Current Election Trend for Bavaria

CSU
41.2
FW
14.8
Grüne
13.2
AfD
11.3
SPD
7.0
BSW
3.0
FDP
2.0
Linke
1.8
BP
1.0
Sonst.
4.7
On the rise: Freie Wähler
+0.8 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: AfD
-2.0 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Bavaria is expected to take place in 2028.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 64.0% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Bavaria?

In the current election trend in Bavaria, CSU leads with 41.2%. This is an increase of +4.2 percentage points since the last election.

Freie Wähler reaches 14.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-1.0 percentage points).

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 13.2% (-1.2).

AfD experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 11.3% (-3.3).

SPD experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 7% (-1.4).

BSW (3%), FDP (2%), Die Linke (1.8%) and Bayernpartei (1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

4.7% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from GMS for SAT.1 Bayern and Civey for Augsburger Allgemeine, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 6024 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Bavaria, the government from CSU and Freie Wähler would secure 64% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: CSU, Freie Wähler, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, AfD and SPD reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 73.3% - 26.7% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Bavaria

GMS
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
Civey
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
GMS
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details

What is the latest poll for Bavaria?

The latest poll for the election in Bavaria was published by GMS. The parties achieve the following values: CSU 41%, Freie Wähler 15%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, AfD 11%, SPD 7%, BSW 3%, Die Linke 2%, FDP 2% and Bayernpartei 1%.

Coalitions

180
SPD
14
Grüne
27
CSU
86
FW
30
AfD
23
Majority requires 91 seats
CSU + Freie Wähler
116
CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
113
CSU + AfD
109
CSU + SPD
100
CSU
86

Which coalitions are currently possible in Bavaria?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CSU and Freie Wähler, Coalition from CSU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Coalition from CSU and AfD and Coalition from CSU and SPD each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Bavaria shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Freie Wähler
+0.8 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: AfD
-2.0 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CSU
Freie Wähler
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
AfD
SPD
BSW
FDP
Die Linke
Bayernpartei
Show more

Bavaria — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Bavaria in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Bavaria took place on 08.10.2023.

Government and parliament

Markus Söder
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 203
Government & opposition
Government : 122
Opposition : 81
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 49
Right-leaning parties : 154

Which parties are in the parliament of Bavaria?

In the parliament of Bavaria, there are 203 representatives from 5 parties. 122 representatives are part of the government from CSU and Freie Wähler. The opposition from AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD has 81 representatives.

49 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 154 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Bavaria?

Markus Söder governs in Bavaria with a coalition of CSU and Freie Wähler.

State election in Bavaria 2028

The State election in Bavaria 2028 will probably take place in 2028. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Markus Söder is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of CSU and Freie Wähler. In the last State election in Bavaria in 2023, CSU (37% - 85 seats), Freie Wähler (15.8% - 37 seats), AfD (14.6% - 32 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (14.4% - 32 seats) and SPD (8.4% - 17 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 73.3%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Bavaria?

The next election in Bavaria is expected to take place in the year 2028.

Who is the president of Bavaria?

The head of state of Bavaria is Markus Söder.

Who governs in Bavaria?

Markus Söder governs in Bavaria with a coalition of CSU and Freie Wähler.

What is the latest poll for Bavaria?

The latest poll for the election in Bavaria was published by GMS. The parties achieve the following values: CSU 41%, Freie Wähler 15%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, AfD 11%, SPD 7%, BSW 3%, Die Linke 2%, FDP 2% and Bayernpartei 1%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Bavaria?

In the parliament of Bavaria, there are 203 representatives from 5 parties. 122 representatives are part of the government from CSU and Freie Wähler. The opposition from AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD has 81 representatives.