Polls, trends and elections for Thuringia

Current Election Trend for Thuringia

AfD
33.6
CDU
19.6
Linke
17.0
BSW
11.2
SPD
7.3
Grüne
4.8
FDP
3.1
Sonst.
3.4
Next election: 01.09.2024
The next general election in Thuringia will be held in 182.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 27.4% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Thuringia?

In the current election trend in Thuringia, AfD leads with 33.6%. This is a significant increase of +10.2 percentage points since the last election.

CDU experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 19.6% (-2.2).

Die Linke reaches 17%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-14.0).

BSW reaches 11.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

SPD reaches 7.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.9 percentage points).

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (4.8%) and FDP (3.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

3.4% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from INSA for Mediengruppe Thüringen, Forsa for RTL / n-tv and Institut Wahlkreisprognose, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3240 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Thuringia, the government from Die Linke, SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen would secure 27.4% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: AfD, CDU, Die Linke, BSW and SPD reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 64.9% - 35.1% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Thuringia

What is the latest poll for Thuringia?

The latest poll for the election in Thuringia was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 31%, CDU 20%, BSW 17%, Die Linke 15%, SPD 6%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 5% and FDP 3%.

Coalitions

AfD + CDU
60.0
AfD + Die Linke
57.1
AfD + BSW
50.5

Which coalitions are currently possible in Thuringia?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from AfD and CDU, Coalition from AfD and Die Linke and Coalition from AfD and BSW each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Thuringia shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
AfD
CDU
Die Linke
BSW
SPD
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
FDP
Show more

Thuringia — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Thuringia in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Thuringia took place on 27.10.2019.

Government and parliament

Bodo Ramelow
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 90
Government & opposition
Government : 42
Opposition : 48
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 42
Right-leaning parties : 48

Which parties are in the parliament of Thuringia?

In the parliament of Thuringia, there are 90 representatives from 6 parties. 42 representatives are part of the government from Die Linke, SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from AfD, CDU and FDP has 48 representatives.

42 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 48 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Thuringia?

Bodo Ramelow governs in Thuringia with a coalition of Die Linke, SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

State election in Thüringen 2024

The State election in Thüringen 2024 will take place on 01.09.2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Bodo Ramelow is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Die Linke and SPD. In the last State election in Thüringen in 2019, Die Linke (31% - 29 seats), AfD (23.4% - 22 seats), CDU (21.8% - 21 seats), SPD (8.2% - 8 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (5.2% - 5 seats) and FDP (5% - 5 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 64.9%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Thuringia?

The next election in Thuringia is on 01.09.2024.

Who is the president of Thuringia?

The head of state of Thuringia is Bodo Ramelow.

Who governs in Thuringia?

Bodo Ramelow governs in Thuringia with a coalition of Die Linke, SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

What is the latest poll for Thuringia?

The latest poll for the election in Thuringia was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 31%, CDU 20%, BSW 17%, Die Linke 15%, SPD 6%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 5% and FDP 3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Thuringia?

In the parliament of Thuringia, there are 90 representatives from 6 parties. 42 representatives are part of the government from Die Linke, SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from AfD, CDU and FDP has 48 representatives.