Current government's majority on shaky ground
In the current poll trend, the governing parties in North Rhine-Westphalia secure 51.4% of the seats.
Change since the May 15, 2022 election
Political Alignment of Parties
What do the symbols mean?
What do the symbols mean?
These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.
Far-Left
Left
Centre-Left
Centre
Big-tent party
Unknown
Centre-Right
Right
Far-Right
Liberal
Green
Regional
Animal Welfare
Satire
Gaining Momentum: FDP
+1.3 gain over the past 90 days
Losing Ground: Die Linke
-2.1 decline over the past 90 days
Next General Election in North Rhine-Westphalia: April 25, 2027
The next General Election in North Rhine-Westphalia takes place in 255 days.
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Who is leading in the PolitPro Poll Trend for North Rhine-Westphalia?
Who is leading in the PolitPro Poll Trend for North Rhine-Westphalia?
The frontrunner in the current PolitPro Poll Trend for the North Rhine-Westphalia election is CDU with 32%. This is followed by AfD: 17%, SPD: 17%, Grüne: 15%, Die Linke: 6% and FDP: 5%. Other parties secure 8% of the votes.
Would the incumbent government in North Rhine-Westphalia currently still hold a majority?
Would the incumbent government in North Rhine-Westphalia currently still hold a majority?
With 51.4% of the seats in the poll trend, the majority of the current government in North Rhine-Westphalia is on a knife-edge. If the General Election in North Rhine-Westphalia were held today, even minor fluctuations or the margin of error of the polling institutes could determine whether CDU and Grüne narrowly hold onto or lose the necessary parliamentary majority.
Data Analysis: How we calculate the PolitPro Poll Trend
Data Analysis: How we calculate the PolitPro Poll Trend
The PolitPro Poll Trend is more than just a snapshot. We aggregate data from all relevant polling institutes into a weighted average for the North Rhine-Westphalia election. Since the classic hypothetical election question ('Who would you vote for if an election were held next Sunday?') inherently fluctuates due to methodology, our poll trend provides a statistically robust data basis. It smooths out short-term outliers and reveals the real political dynamics over time.
By combining multiple data sources, we minimize the risk of random effects. Each survey is subject to a statistical margin of error (usually between 1.5% and 3%). Our poll check for North Rhine-Westphalia precisely indicates whether a party's gain represents a sustainable development or merely falls within the statistical uncertainty of a single institute.
The calculation follows a transparent mathematical model: Current polls receive a higher weighting than older data. Furthermore, the historical predictive accuracy of the institutes is incorporated into the calculation to compensate for methodological biases. The result is a valid trend line that accurately reflects the party system of North Rhine-Westphalia.