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Change since the May 15, 2022 election
Political Alignment of Parties
What do the symbols mean?
What do the symbols mean?
These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.
Far-Left
Left
Centre-Left
Centre
Big-tent party
Unknown
Centre-Right
Right
Far-Right
Liberal
Green
Regional
Animal Welfare
Satire
PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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CDU??%
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AfD??%
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SPD??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
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CDU??%
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AfD??%
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SPD??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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Linke??%
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FDP??%
Likelihood of a Coalition Majority
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??%
??%
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?
How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Stable majority for the incumbent government
In the current poll trend, the governing parties in North Rhine-Westphalia secure 53.6% of the seats.
Gaining Momentum: AfD
+2.9 gain over the past 30 days
Losing Ground: SPD
-3.2 decline over the past 30 days
Next General Election in North Rhine-Westphalia: April 25, 2027
The next General Election in North Rhine-Westphalia takes place in 344 days.
Who is leading in the PolitPro Poll Trend for North Rhine-Westphalia?
Who is leading in the PolitPro Poll Trend for North Rhine-Westphalia?
The frontrunner in the current PolitPro Poll Trend for the North Rhine-Westphalia election is CDU with 33.4%. This is followed by AfD: 17.9%, SPD: 16.8%, Grüne: 15.6%, Die Linke: 8.1% and FDP: 3.7%. Other parties secure 4.5% of the votes.
Would the incumbent government in North Rhine-Westphalia currently still hold a majority?
Would the incumbent government in North Rhine-Westphalia currently still hold a majority?
The incumbent governing parties in North Rhine-Westphalia confirm their majority in the current poll trend with 53.6% of the seats. Thus, the coalition of CDU and Grüne continues to enjoy solid parliamentary support to stably continue governmental affairs.
Data Analysis: How we calculate the PolitPro Poll Trend
Data Analysis: How we calculate the PolitPro Poll Trend
The PolitPro Poll Trend is more than just a snapshot. We aggregate data from all relevant polling institutes into a weighted average for the North Rhine-Westphalia election. Since the classic hypothetical election question ('Who would you vote for if an election were held next Sunday?') inherently fluctuates due to methodology, our poll trend provides a statistically robust data basis. It smooths out short-term outliers and reveals the real political dynamics over time.
By combining multiple data sources, we minimize the risk of random effects. Each survey is subject to a statistical margin of error (usually between 1.5% and 3%). Our poll check for North Rhine-Westphalia precisely indicates whether a party's gain represents a sustainable development or merely falls within the statistical uncertainty of a single institute.
The calculation follows a transparent mathematical model: Current polls receive a higher weighting than older data. Furthermore, the historical predictive accuracy of the institutes is incorporated into the calculation to compensate for methodological biases. The result is a valid trend line that accurately reflects the party system of North Rhine-Westphalia.