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Polls, trends and elections for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Current Election Trend for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

AfD
25.1
SPD
22.3
CDU
20.0
BSW
13.4
Grüne
6.4
Linke
5.1
Grüne
4.9
FDP
2.7
Sonst.
0.1
On the rise: BSW
+3.4 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
-1.6 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2026
The next parliamentary election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is expected to take place in 2026.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 29.7% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

In the current election trend in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, AfD leads with 25.1%. This is a significant increase of +8.4 percentage points since the last election.

SPD reaches 22.3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-17.3).

CDU reaches 20%. This is a significant increase of +6.7 percentage points since the last election.

BSW reaches 13.4%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen reaches 6.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.1 percentage points).

Die Linke experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 5.1% (-4.8).

Grüne Demokraten (4.9%) and FDP (2.7%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0.1% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from INSA for Nordkurier, Infratest dimap for NDR and Forsa for Ostsee-Zeitung, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3182 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the government from SPD and Die Linke would secure 29.7% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: AfD, SPD, CDU, BSW, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and Die Linke reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 70.8% - 29.2% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

What is the latest poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

The latest poll for the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 25%, SPD 23%, CDU 20%, BSW 14%, Grüne Demokraten 6%, Die Linke 5% and FDP 4%.

Coalitions

67
Linke
3
SPD
16
Grüne
5
BSW
10
CDU
15
AfD
18
Majority requires 34 seats
AfD + CDU + BSW
SPD + CDU + BSW
SPD + CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
SPD + Die Linke
19

Which coalitions are currently possible in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from AfD, CDU and BSW, Coalition from SPD, CDU and BSW and Coalition from SPD, CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: BSW
+3.4 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
-1.6 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
AfD
SPD
CDU
BSW
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Die Linke
Grüne Demokraten
FDP
Show more

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania took place on 26.09.2021.

Government and parliament

Manuela Schwesig
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 79
Government & opposition
Government : 43
Opposition : 36
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 48
Right-leaning parties : 31

Which parties are in the parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

In the parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, there are 79 representatives from 6 parties. 43 representatives are part of the government from SPD and Die Linke. The opposition from AfD, CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP has 36 representatives.

48 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 31 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

Manuela Schwesig governs in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with a coalition of SPD and Die Linke.

State election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026

The State election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026 will probably take place in 2026. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Manuela Schwesig is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition of Die Linke and SPD. In the last State election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 2021, SPD (39.6% - 34 seats), AfD (16.7% - 14 seats), CDU (13.3% - 12 seats), Die Linke (9.9% - 9 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (6.3% - 5 seats) and FDP (5.8% - 5 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 70.8%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

The next election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is expected to take place in the year 2026.

Who is the president of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

The head of state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is Manuela Schwesig.

Who governs in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

Manuela Schwesig governs in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with a coalition of SPD and Die Linke.

What is the latest poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

The latest poll for the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: AfD 25%, SPD 23%, CDU 20%, BSW 14%, Grüne Demokraten 6%, Die Linke 5% and FDP 4%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania?

In the parliament of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, there are 79 representatives from 6 parties. 43 representatives are part of the government from SPD and Die Linke. The opposition from AfD, CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP has 36 representatives.