Polls, trends and elections for Schleswig-Holstein

Current Election Trend for Schleswig-Holstein

CDU
40.0
Grüne
16.0
SPD
15.0
AfD
12.0
FDP
6.0
SSW
6.0
Sonst.
5.0
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Schleswig-Holstein is expected to take place in 2027.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 58.9% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Schleswig-Holstein?

In the current election trend in Schleswig-Holstein, CDU leads with 40%. This is a loss of -3.4 percentage points since the last election.

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 16% (-2.3).

SPD reaches 15% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-1.0 percentage points).

AfD reaches 12%. This is a significant increase of +7.6 percentage points since the last election.

FDP reaches 6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.4 percentage points).

Südschleswigscher Wählerverband reaches 6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.3 percentage points).

5% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Schleswig-Holstein, the government from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen would secure 58.9% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, SPD, AfD, FDP and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 60.4% - 39.6% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Schleswig-Holstein

What is the latest poll for Schleswig-Holstein?

The latest poll for the election in Schleswig-Holstein was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 40%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16%, SPD 15%, AfD 12%, FDP 6% and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband 6%.

Coalitions

CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
58.9
CDU + SPD
57.9
CDU + AfD
54.7
CDU + FDP + Südschleswigscher Wählerverband
54.7
CDU + FDP
48.4

Which coalitions are currently possible in Schleswig-Holstein?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Coalition from CDU and SPD, Coalition from CDU and AfD and Coalition from CDU, FDP and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Schleswig-Holstein shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CDU
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
SPD
AfD
FDP
Südschleswigscher Wählerverband
Show more

Schleswig-Holstein — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Schleswig-Holstein in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Schleswig-Holstein took place on 08.05.2022.

Government and parliament

Daniel Günther
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 69
Government & opposition
Government : 48
Opposition : 21
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 30
Right-leaning parties : 39

Which parties are in the parliament of Schleswig-Holstein?

In the parliament of Schleswig-Holstein, there are 69 representatives from 5 parties. 48 representatives are part of the government from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from SPD, FDP and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband has 21 representatives.

30 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 39 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Schleswig-Holstein?

Daniel Günther governs in Schleswig-Holstein with a coalition of CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

State election in Schleswig-Holstein 2027

The State election in Schleswig-Holstein 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Daniel Günther is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU. In the last State election in Schleswig-Holstein in 2022, CDU (43.4% - 34 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (18.3% - 14 seats), SPD (16% - 12 seats), FDP (6.4% - 5 seats) and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband (5.7% - 4 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 60.4%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Schleswig-Holstein?

The next election in Schleswig-Holstein is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who is the president of Schleswig-Holstein?

The head of state of Schleswig-Holstein is Daniel Günther.

Who governs in Schleswig-Holstein?

Daniel Günther governs in Schleswig-Holstein with a coalition of CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

What is the latest poll for Schleswig-Holstein?

The latest poll for the election in Schleswig-Holstein was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 40%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 16%, SPD 15%, AfD 12%, FDP 6% and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband 6%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Schleswig-Holstein?

In the parliament of Schleswig-Holstein, there are 69 representatives from 5 parties. 48 representatives are part of the government from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from SPD, FDP and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband has 21 representatives.