Current Election Trend for Schleswig-Holstein
Who is leading in the election trend in Schleswig-Holstein?
In the current election trend in Schleswig-Holstein, CDU leads with 40%. This is a loss of -3.4 percentage points since the last election.
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 16% (-2.3).
SPD reaches 15% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-1.0 percentage points).
AfD reaches 12%. This is a significant increase of +7.6 percentage points since the last election.
FDP reaches 6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.4 percentage points).
Südschleswigscher Wählerverband reaches 6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.3 percentage points).
5% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, SPD, AfD, FDP and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Latest polls for Schleswig-Holstein
What is the latest poll for Schleswig-Holstein?
Which coalitions are currently possible in Schleswig-Holstein?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Schleswig-Holstein shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
Schleswig-Holstein — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Schleswig-Holstein?
In the parliament of Schleswig-Holstein, there are 69 representatives from 5 parties. 48 representatives are part of the government from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from SPD, FDP and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband has 21 representatives.
30 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 39 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Schleswig-Holstein?
State election in Schleswig-Holstein 2027
The State election in Schleswig-Holstein 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Daniel Günther is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU. In the last State election in Schleswig-Holstein in 2022, CDU (43.4% - 34 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (18.3% - 14 seats), SPD (16% - 12 seats), FDP (6.4% - 5 seats) and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband (5.7% - 4 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 60.4%.