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Current Election Trend for Berlin's Parliamentary Election
Weighted average of all institutes. The bars show the current standing, the chips the change since the last election. Election Trend for Berlin's Parliamentary Election (as of August 19, 2026)
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Would Berlin's Incumbent Government Still Hold a Majority Today?
The governing alliance of CDU and SPD would win just 37.7% of the seats in the Election Trend – too few for a majority of its own.
Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend for Berlin?
Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend for Berlin?
Leading the current PolitPro Election Trend for Berlin's Parliamentary Election is Die Linke with 19.9%, followed by CDU with 19.3%, AfD with 17.6%, Grüne with 16.6%, SPD with 13.2%, BSW with 3.1% and FDP with 3.1%. Other parties achieve 7.2% of the votes.
How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend
How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend
The PolitPro Election Trend transcends a mere snapshot. We aggregate data from all relevant polling institutes into a weighted average for Berlin's Parliamentary election. While classic voting intention polls (“Which party would you vote for if the election were held next Sunday?”) fluctuate due to methodological reasons, our Election Trend offers a statistically robust data foundation. It smooths short-term outliers and reveals genuine political dynamics over time.
By combining multiple data sources, we minimize the risk of random effects. Every survey carries a statistical margin of error (typically between 1.5% and 3%). Our Berlin poll check precisely indicates whether a party's gain signals a lasting development or merely falls within the statistical uncertainty of a single institute.
The calculation adheres to a transparent mathematical model: recent polls carry greater weight than older data. Each institute's historical forecasting accuracy also informs the calculation to offset methodological bias. The result is a valid trend line that precisely maps Berlin's party system.
Current government
Coalition Calculator: Possible Majorities After Berlin's Parliamentary Election
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130
Majority
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Scenarios: What if...?
Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.
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PolitPro Analysis
Probability of an Absolute Majority
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Linke
0%
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CDU
0%
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AfD
0%
Probability of Election Victory
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Linke
61%
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CDU
34%
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AfD
4%
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Grüne
1%
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SPD
<1%
Probability of Entering Parliament
-
BSW
<1%
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FDP
<1%
How does the PolitPro Analysis work?
How does the PolitPro Analysis work?
Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Projected composition of parliament
Projected composition of parliament
Based on the Election Trend, 5 parties are projected to enter Berlin's parliament: Die Linke with 30 seats, CDU with 29 seats, AfD with 26 seats, Grüne with 25 seats and SPD with 20 seats.
Berlin's Electoral System Explained
Berlin's Electoral System Explained
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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles
Electoral Threshold and Hurdles
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Government formation and coalition traditions
Government formation and coalition traditions
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How Berlin's Polling Numbers Have Shifted
Latest Election Polls from Polling Institutes
Archive: All Berlin Election Polls
Each year as a table: The archive's year pages are part of PolitPro+.
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