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Polls, trends and elections for Hamburg

Current Election Trend for Hamburg

SPD
32.0
Grüne
21.5
CDU
18.5
AfD
8.5
Linke
6.0
FDP
3.5
BSW
2.0
Sonst.
8.0
On the rise: SPD
+2.0 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: CDU
-1.5 loss in the last 3 months
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Hamburg is expected to take place in 2025.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 61.9% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Hamburg?

In the current election trend in Hamburg, SPD leads with 32%. This is a significant loss of -7.2 percentage points since the last election.

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 21.5% (-2.7).

CDU reaches 18.5%. This is a significant increase of +7.3 percentage points since the last election.

AfD lands at 8.5% and gains +3.2 percentage points since the last election.

Die Linke experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 6% (-3.1).

FDP (3.5%) and BSW (2%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Institut Wahlkreisprognose, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1304 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Hamburg, the government from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen would secure 61.9% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, CDU, AfD and Die Linke reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 63.3% - 36.7% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Hamburg

What is the latest poll for Hamburg?

The latest poll for the election in Hamburg was published by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The parties achieve the following values: SPD 32%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 21.5%, CDU 18.5%, AfD 8.5%, Die Linke 6%, FDP 3.5% and BSW 2%.

Coalitions

121
Linke
8
SPD
45
Grüne
30
CDU
26
AfD
12
Majority requires 61 seats
SPD + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
75
SPD + CDU
71
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + CDU
56

Which coalitions are currently possible in Hamburg?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and Coalition from SPD and CDU each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Hamburg shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: SPD
+2.0 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: CDU
-1.5 loss in the last 3 months
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
SPD
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
CDU
AfD
Die Linke
FDP
BSW
Show more

Hamburg — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Hamburg in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Hamburg took place on 23.02.2020.

Government and parliament

Peter Tschentscher
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 121
Government & opposition
Government : 87
Opposition : 36
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 100
Right-leaning parties : 23

Which parties are in the parliament of Hamburg?

In the parliament of Hamburg, there are 121 representatives from 6 parties. 87 representatives are part of the government from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from CDU, Die Linke, AfD and FDP has 36 representatives.

100 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 23 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Hamburg?

Peter Tschentscher governs in Hamburg with a coalition of SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

State election in Hamburg 2025

The State election in Hamburg 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Peter Tschentscher is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD. In the last State election in Hamburg in 2020, SPD (39.2% - 54 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (24.2% - 33 seats), CDU (11.2% - 15 seats), Die Linke (9.1% - 13 seats), AfD (5.3% - 7 seats) and FDP (4.9% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 63.3%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Hamburg?

The next election in Hamburg is expected to take place in the year 2025.

Who is the president of Hamburg?

The head of state of Hamburg is Peter Tschentscher.

Who governs in Hamburg?

Peter Tschentscher governs in Hamburg with a coalition of SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen.

What is the latest poll for Hamburg?

The latest poll for the election in Hamburg was published by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The parties achieve the following values: SPD 32%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 21.5%, CDU 18.5%, AfD 8.5%, Die Linke 6%, FDP 3.5% and BSW 2%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Hamburg?

In the parliament of Hamburg, there are 121 representatives from 6 parties. 87 representatives are part of the government from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from CDU, Die Linke, AfD and FDP has 36 representatives.