Current Election Trend for Hamburg
Who is leading in the election trend in Hamburg?
In the current election trend in Hamburg, SPD leads with 30%. This is a significant loss of -9.2 percentage points since the last election.
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 21% (-3.2).
CDU reaches 20%. This is a significant increase of +8.8 percentage points since the last election.
AfD lands at 9% and gains +3.7 percentage points since the last election.
Die Linke experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 7% (-2.1).
FDP reaches 5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.1 percentage points).
8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Infratest dimap for NDR, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 1164 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, CDU, AfD, Die Linke and FDP reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Latest polls for Hamburg
What is the latest poll for Hamburg?
Which coalitions are currently possible in Hamburg?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Hamburg shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
Hamburg — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Hamburg?
In the parliament of Hamburg, there are 121 representatives from 6 parties. 87 representatives are part of the government from SPD and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen. The opposition from CDU, Die Linke, AfD and FDP has 36 representatives.
100 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 23 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Hamburg?
State election in Hamburg 2025
The State election in Hamburg 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Peter Tschentscher is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and SPD. In the last State election in Hamburg in 2020, SPD (39.2% - 54 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (24.2% - 33 seats), CDU (11.2% - 15 seats), Die Linke (9.1% - 13 seats), AfD (5.3% - 7 seats) and FDP (4.9% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 63.3%.