Polls, trends and elections for Baden-Württemberg

Current Election Trend for Baden-Württemberg

CDU
32.0
Grüne
22.0
AfD
18.0
SPD
9.0
FDP
7.0
FW
3.0
Sonst.
9.0
Next election: 2026
The next parliamentary election in Baden-Württemberg is expected to take place in 2026.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 61.4% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Baden-Württemberg?

In the current election trend in Baden-Württemberg, CDU leads with 32%. This is a significant increase of +7.9 percentage points since the last election.

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen reaches 22%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-10.6).

AfD reaches 18%. This is a significant increase of +8.3 percentage points since the last election.

SPD experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 9% (-2.0).

FDP experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 7% (-3.5).

Freie Wähler (3%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

9% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Infratest dimap for SWR, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1152 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Baden-Württemberg, the government from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU would secure 61.4% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, AfD, SPD and FDP reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 70.4% - 29.6% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Baden-Württemberg

What is the latest poll for Baden-Württemberg?

The latest poll for the election in Baden-Württemberg was published by Infratest dimap. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 32%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 22%, AfD 18%, SPD 9%, FDP 7% and Freie Wähler 3%.

Coalitions

CDU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
61.4
CDU + AfD
56.9
CDU + SPD + FDP
54.6
CDU + SPD
46.6

Which coalitions are currently possible in Baden-Württemberg?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Coalition from CDU and AfD and Coalition from CDU, SPD and FDP each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Baden-Württemberg shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: CDU
+2.0 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: AfD
-4.0 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CDU
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
AfD
SPD
FDP
Freie Wähler
Show more

Baden-Württemberg — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Baden-Württemberg in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Baden-Württemberg took place on 14.03.2021.

Government and parliament

Winfried Kretschmann
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 154
Government & opposition
Government : 100
Opposition : 54
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 77
Right-leaning parties : 77

Which parties are in the parliament of Baden-Württemberg?

In the parliament of Baden-Württemberg, there are 154 representatives from 5 parties. 100 representatives are part of the government from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU. The opposition from SPD, FDP and AfD has 54 representatives.

77 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 77 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Baden-Württemberg?

Winfried Kretschmann governs in Baden-Württemberg with a coalition of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU.

State election in Baden-Württemberg 2026

The State election in Baden-Württemberg 2026 will probably take place in 2026. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Winfried Kretschmann is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU. In the last State election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (32.6% - 58 seats), CDU (24.1% - 42 seats), SPD (11% - 19 seats), FDP (10.5% - 18 seats) and AfD (9.7% - 17 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 70.4%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Baden-Württemberg?

The next election in Baden-Württemberg is expected to take place in the year 2026.

Who is the president of Baden-Württemberg?

The head of state of Baden-Württemberg is Winfried Kretschmann.

Who governs in Baden-Württemberg?

Winfried Kretschmann governs in Baden-Württemberg with a coalition of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU.

What is the latest poll for Baden-Württemberg?

The latest poll for the election in Baden-Württemberg was published by Infratest dimap. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 32%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 22%, AfD 18%, SPD 9%, FDP 7% and Freie Wähler 3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Baden-Württemberg?

In the parliament of Baden-Württemberg, there are 154 representatives from 5 parties. 100 representatives are part of the government from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and CDU. The opposition from SPD, FDP and AfD has 54 representatives.