Current Election Trend for Rhineland-Palatinate
Who is leading in the election trend in Rhineland-Palatinate?
In the current election trend in Rhineland-Palatinate, CDU leads with 31%. This is an increase of +3.3 percentage points since the last election.
SPD reaches 22%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-13.7).
AfD reaches 15%. This is a significant increase of +6.7 percentage points since the last election.
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen reaches 10% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.7 percentage points).
Freie Wähler lands at 7% and gains +1.6 percentage points since the last election.
FDP (4%) and BSW (4%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.
7% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Infratest dimap for SWR, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 1157 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: CDU, SPD, AfD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and Freie Wähler reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Latest polls for Rhineland-Palatinate
What is the latest poll for Rhineland-Palatinate?
Coalitions
Which coalitions are currently possible in Rhineland-Palatinate?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Rhineland-Palatinate shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
CDU |
+0.7
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+3.8
|
+3.3
|
SPD |
-0.7
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-6.4
|
-13.7
|
AfD |
-0.8
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+1.2
|
+6.7
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
+0.2
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-2.7
|
+0.7
|
Freie Wähler |
-0.1
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+1.3
|
+1.6
|
FDP |
+0.1
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.5
|
BSW |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+4.0
|
Rhineland-Palatinate — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Rhineland-Palatinate?
In the parliament of Rhineland-Palatinate, there are 101 representatives from 6 parties. 55 representatives are part of the government from SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP. The opposition from CDU, AfD and Freie Wähler has 46 representatives.
49 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 52 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Rhineland-Palatinate?
State election in Rhineland-Palatinate 2026
The State election in Rhineland-Palatinate 2026 will probably take place in 2026. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Malu Dreyer is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, FDP and SPD. In the last State election in Rhineland-Palatinate in 2021, SPD (35.7% - 39 seats), CDU (27.7% - 31 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (9.3% - 10 seats), AfD (8.3% - 9 seats), FDP (5.5% - 6 seats) and Freie Wähler (5.4% - 6 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 64.1%.