Latest voting intention survey by Forsa for the Bundestag election
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Germany conducted by Forsa, the parties received the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 18%, SPD 17%, Grüne 13%, BSW 4%, FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2501 people during the period 09.12.2024 - 09.12.2024. The survey was commissioned by RTL / n-tv.
2501 participants
09.12.2024 - 09.12.2024
Forsa
RTL / n-tv
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
Seats in parliament
630
Majority requires 316 seats
SPD
135
21.4%
Grüne
104
16.5%
Union
247
39.2%
AfD
144
22.9%
CDU/CSU + AfD
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + Grüne
Latest voting intention surveys by Forsa for the federal states
Rating of parties
Institute often rates AfD lower
In 36% of election polls Forsa rates AfD lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates BSW lower
In 46% of election polls Forsa rates BSW lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Forsa pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.37
|
Parliamentary Election in Thüringen 2024 | 4/5 |
|
0.73
|
Parliamentary Election in Sachsen 2024 | 1/5 |
|
0.92
|
Parliamentary Election in Berlin 2023 | 1/6 |
|
1.07
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2021 | 8/12 |
|
1.6
|
Parliamentary Election in Deutschland 2017 | 6/10 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.
Forsa for RTL & n-tv
The Forsa Institute was founded in 1984 and regularly conducts polls published by RTL and n-tv. Forsa says it uses computer-assisted telephone and personal interviews as well as online panels to gather opinions. In the past, there have been repeated controversies surrounding surveys conducted by Forsa due to inaccurate questions.