Germany
Election trend
Parties

Germany: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 24.01.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
27.5
-6.5
AfD
19.0
-5.5
SPD
15.5
+3.5
Grüne
12.5
+2.0
BSW
9.0
+9.0
FDP
6.5
+2.0
Linke
2.5
-0.5
Sonst.
7.5
-4.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+3.4
AfD
+8.7
SPD
-10.2
Grüne
-2.3
BSW
FDP
-5.0
Linke
-2.4
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 1366 respondents – 22.01.2024-24.01.2024
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2025.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: CDU/CSU 27.5%, AfD 19%, SPD 15.5%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 12.5%, BSW 9%, FDP 6.5% and Die Linke 2.5%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, FDP and SPD. With 38.3% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 1366 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (22.01.2024 - 24.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
108
Grüne
88
BSW
63
FDP
45
CDU/CSU
193
AfD
133
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + SPD + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
389
CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW
364
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
346
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + BSW
344
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + FDP
326
CDU/CSU + AfD
326
CDU/CSU + SPD
301

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 22.01.2024 and 24.01.2024 among 1366 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 27.5%, AfD 19%, SPD 15.5%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 12.5%, BSW 9%, FDP 6.5% and Die Linke 2.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.