Germany
Election trend
Parties

Germany: Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen from 01.02.2024

Polling data

CDU/CSU
31.0
±0.0
AfD
19.0
-3.0
SPD
15.0
+2.0
Grüne
13.0
-1.0
BSW
6.0
+2.0
FDP
4.0
±0.0
Linke
3.0
-1.0
FW
3.0
-1.0
Sonst.
6.0
+2.0
Development since the last election on 26.09.2021
CDU/CSU
+6.9
AfD
+8.7
SPD
-10.7
Grüne
-1.8
BSW
FDP
-7.5
Linke
-1.9
FW
+0.6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen – 1217 respondents – 30.01.2024-01.02.2024
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2025.

Election poll results

Germany - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Germany from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows the following results: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, BSW 6%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 3%. If an election were held in Germany this Sunday, AfD might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.7 growth since the last election. SPD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, FDP and SPD. With 33.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. For this purpose, 1217 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (30.01.2024 - 01.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

630
SPD
113
Grüne
98
BSW
44
CDU/CSU
233
AfD
142
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + AfD
375
CDU/CSU + SPD
346
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
331

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Germany was conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The survey took place between 30.01.2024 and 01.02.2024 among 1217 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 19%, SPD 15%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 13%, BSW 6%, FDP 4%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 3%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.